Switch ultimately outselling Wii?

[Tanooki]

http://time.com/4705071/nintendo-switch-production/ -- That was last March. Nintendo officially doubled production of the Switch to make, ship and (hopefully) sell not 8M but 16M units by April 1 2018 the end of their fiscal year. We know for a fact the WiiU is out of production and has been since last year and they were sitting on inventory shipping it out through the end of 2016. There are a little over 13.5M units of the WiiU created and sold.

 

All Nintendo has to do in 12months and couple weeks time has to do is meet their production projection, and the WiiU will be bypassed by a few million. Nintendo is still wishing, but still given the pacing of the Switch has outmatched the pacing of the Wii in the same time frame, they may be on to something.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Tanooki

[Karyyk]

I've yet to see a single Switch in stock anywhere, although I'm sure they're selling them through. It's selling like hotcakes, but it's mostly due to the perceived uniqueness of the platform and for the relative exclusivity of Breath of the Wild (relative in that the Wii U did not sell well).

 

The thing that gets me is the complete lack of games available for it. Outside of Breath of the Wild, almost everything is a port of some kind (Lego City Undercover, The Binding of Isaac, Ultra Street Fighter II, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, you get the drill). I know the games are coming, but they're sure not coming quickly.

Edited June 17, 2017 by Karyyk

[Mord]

I've yet to see a single Switch in stock anywhere, although I'm sure they're selling them through. It's selling like hotcakes, but it's mostly due to the perceived uniqueness of the platform and for the relative exclusivity of Breath of the Wild (relative in that the Wii U did not sell well).

 

The thing that gets me is the complete lack of games available for it. Outside of Breath of the Wild, almost everything is a port of some kind (Lego City Undercover, The Binding of Isaac, Ultra Street Fighter II, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, you get the drill). I know the games are coming, but they're sure not coming quickly.

 

On the way to work yesterday I noticed Gamestop had several Switches on the shelf behind the counter. Fridays appear to be the best day to look for restocks imo. The 3-4 times I've seen them available have been on a Friday - at which point it'd be sold out before I got paid the next week!

[Rev]

I have not seen a switch in any store since I bought my own.

[Andromeda Stardust]

I have not seen a switch in any store since I bought my own.

Best Buy got in a few shipments so did Gamestop. A couple times I've been to Best Buy looking for stomething else, they had sianga up saying "Switch in stock" to replace the usual "sold out" notices. Same as Gamestop. A couple times I went to gamestop to pick up switch games, the clerk asket me if I wanted a Switch console, I said "nope, already got one, may I please have a copy of X..."

 

I live in a medium sized market, about 300,000 counting the surrounding areas. It is possible with the prevelance of placs like Walmart in ural communities, perhaps medium sized urban areas are the best shot. Rural towns may only have one or two stores carrying the items, while mecium sized pupulatoan centers may have lots more. And scalpers tend to center around large upan areas so people in big cities, small towns may jave ;ess opportunity to purchase switch consoles than people in medium zied ciites .

 

It als o may vary considerably pending on east coast west coast veruss deep sourht or midwest regions. Suppliye tranins run to disgrubeue goosd so i may be people in one geographic region have better luck procuring consoles than others. I stood in line to preorder the switch on the big january revieal so I was given ticket #4 for the bit midnight launch event.

 

Sorry vor the typos, my fingers aren't coooperating right now...

[LionHearted78]

It's a great debate to be had really. I honestly think that once this next holiday season is over, you will start seeing the Switch launch window as being pretty favorable. More so than a lot consoles in recent memory. They already had a GOTY candidate in Zelda at launch. Mario before the end of the year, then a Kirby and Yoshi game before the end of winter 2018. Then you probably have Metroid Prime 4 later in 2018 Pokemon on the horizon as well... Not to mention bringing over Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 ...and a bunch of other great titles, that's one of the better first year launch windows that a console has had in awhile. Especially a Nintendo console. It's also a great sign to see 3rd party titles like Rocket League and Skyrim as well as EA sports titles for the systems long-term survival.

 

The system itself is very solid and versatile. I was cautiously optimistic at first, but now after owning mine for about a month, I'm totally sold. It's great. Love being able to play at home as well as on the go. System is solid and the games look great. Now that they have announced a few of the details of the Online platform, Things are definitely on the rise. The price point is pretty close to on the money for a lot of people to adopt the platform and it's designed to fit into most peoples lifestyle.

 

I really could see this thing being one of the best selling Nintendo consoles of all time. Even in a time where dedicated consoles are on the decline.

[Bill Loguidice]

I really could see this thing being one of the best selling Nintendo consoles of all time. Even in a time where dedicated consoles are on the decline.

 

I wouldn't say dedicated consoles are in a decline. The sales pace of this generation (PS4, Xbox One, Switch) has been better than ever. The catch is if one or more of the three will break 100 million consoles sold, which is a pretty high bar. All three could get there, with the PS4 being the only potential lock at this point (although still a long way to go) with 61 million units sold to date versus the Xbox One's ~33 million.The Switch still has a lot of time left to make up that kind of ground.

[Rev]

http://www.investors.com/news/technology/click/nintendo-stock-jumps-on-upgrade-switchs-sales-prospects/

 

A prediction of 130 million

[+swlovinist]

Switch is going to sell more than the Wii U, probably the Gamecube, and N64. It is still new coming out with some solid titles. Will that last? Here is why I dont think it will sell 100 million:

 

-market too fractured, as others here have said

-not a media device(not yet)

-third party support still soft

-online chat in current form is still terrible

-more expensive option than its competitors

-under powered as home console

 

It will sell better than I predicted, but not near as much as the company thinks. An interesting hybrid, that in the end will be remembered as a good console.

[Good_Times]

I wish the Switch the best of luck, it's very much in line with what I've always wanted from Nintendo - a gaming tablet w/dock. I view it as more of a handheld device than a console, but either way works for me.

 

Haven't really cared about having a Nintendo machine hooked up on the regular since SNES, so this is exciting.

[godslabrat]

The Switch would have to sell very, very well to beat the GameCube. Since I've spent most of the past decade hearing that the Wii was "just two gamecubes strapped together", then clearly the Wii's 101 million sales figure translates into 202 million Gamecubes sold. Add that to the 22 million Cubes sold in the initial run, and the Switch has a hell of a number to beat.

[Tanooki]

The Switch could easily pass the Gamecube. Gamecube didn't sell that much. GC sold about 22M units over 5 years. In the last tally for the Switch through August put them around 5.4M systems sold worldwide. That's 5 months and they have done 1/4 of the total GC system sales over 5 years. Are you seriously going to argue that they can't sell another 16.5M units? Nothing short of a total catastrophic failure of both Nintendo and third parties combined (like with WiiU) could cause it to implode that horribly.

 

For fun reference, NES sold 62M, SNES sold 49M and N64 sold 33M units.

 

Perhaps it would be best to speculate against one of their cartridge systems, 2D ones at that maybe as a comparison if things take a harder lasting turn for the worst. In all fairness to even guess at this point is fairly poor of an idea. We have not seen a Christmas roll out or even what the next generation of games on the system will give people, let alone about what new third parties will step up or those now known will continue to step up doing things.

 

I do think the match or beat the beast as the Wii is unlikely but screwier things have happened. Also if they upgrade it modularly and keep it around even longer like the PS4 vs Pro (as in a Switch with the X1 goes to X2) it would look even more likely to do crazy numbers. I wouldn't put it beyond Nintendo -- as you noted the Wii being 2 GC's slapped together, or realistically their entire handheld history GB-> GBC (doubles ram, doubles cpu speed) and the DS to 3DS jump all using hardware starting with the GBA.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Tanooki

[Austin]

The Switch could easily pass the Gamecube. Gamecube didn't sell that much. GC sold about 22M units over 5 years.

You clearly missed the joke.

[godslabrat]

The Switch could easily pass the Gamecube. Gamecube didn't sell that much. GC sold about 22M units over 5 years. In the last tally for the Switch through August put them around 5.4M systems sold worldwide. That's 5 months and they have done 1/4 of the total GC system sales over 5 years. Are you seriously going to argue that they can't sell another 16.5M units? Nothing short of a total catastrophic failure of both Nintendo and third parties combined (like with WiiU) could cause it to implode that horribly.

 

For fun reference, NES sold 62M, SNES sold 49M and N64 sold 33M units.

 

Perhaps it would be best to speculate against one of their cartridge systems, 2D ones at that maybe as a comparison if things take a harder lasting turn for the worst. In all fairness to even guess at this point is fairly poor of an idea. We have not seen a Christmas roll out or even what the next generation of games on the system will give people, let alone about what new third parties will step up or those now known will continue to step up doing things.

 

I do think the match or beat the beast as the Wii is unlikely but screwier things have happened. Also if they upgrade it modularly and keep it around even longer like the PS4 vs Pro (as in a Switch with the X1 goes to X2) it would look even more likely to do crazy numbers. I wouldn't put it beyond Nintendo -- as you noted the Wii being 2 GC's slapped together, or realistically their entire handheld history GB-> GBC (doubles ram, doubles cpu speed) and the DS to 3DS jump all using hardware starting with the GBA.

 

...which brings the full total to 224 million. That's a lot of GameCubes.

[Schizophretard]

The Switch is just 224 million Game Cubes strapped together.

[Good_Times]

The Switch is just 224 million Game Cubes strapped together.

 

You should see my PS3!

 

[Tanooki]

You clearly missed the joke.

I saw no humor in it even reading it now, then again I also passed out right around then for an hour at my keyboard too. I do get the point though mocking the Wii is 2 GC's junk a decade ago being more awake, but just don't find it funny.

[Flojomojo]

Switch is in stock at GameStop in a bundle with Zelda, which most people want anyway. I think everyone who wants one should be able to get one. The scalpers on Amazon are only asking a slight upcharge nowadays. Maybe they'll give up soon.

 

Here's an op-ed I enjoyed: The Switch is for old people, and that's awesome.

 

As for x selling more than y, who gives a flying fudge, so long as it sells enough to keep going? I like my Nintendo games niche and weird, and I don't really care if Mario Odyssey outsells Brown Desert Online Murder Simulator 2018.

[omegadot]

We have them in stock at all the retailers here. Mine sees so much use I've thought about a second but I'm waiting for some special model or the possible upgrade.

[Punisher5.0]

The other day my local walmart had two in stock

[Tanooki]

I think if someone wanted a second if they're not in total love with it as is, knowing how Nintendo handles handhelds historically a good +2 year wait would probably improve tech scaling/price drop for them. Then you'll probably other than more colors see a handheld only mode unit or a tv mode only unit. In both cases money would be saved for a cheaper option as one would lack a panel, the other wouldnt need the dock or hdmi or the grip holder either.

[Skippy B. Coyote]

I think if someone wanted a second if they're not in total love with it as is, knowing how Nintendo handles handhelds historically a good +2 year wait would probably improve tech scaling/price drop for them. Then you'll probably other than more colors see a handheld only mode unit or a tv mode only unit. In both cases money would be saved for a cheaper option as one would lack a panel, the other wouldnt need the dock or hdmi or the grip holder either.

It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo treats the Switch like a handheld or a home console in terms of future hardware iterations. Historically Nintendo has had a tendency to put out new and improved versions of their handhelds every 1 or 2 years, but home consoles rarely get revisions until late in their lifespan; if they get any at all.

 

Another factor to consider is that the Big N's main selling point that they're trying to push with the Switch is it's ability to be used as both a portable and home console, so they might not feel inclined to put out revised versions of the Switch tailored to be just one or the other. On the other hand, we are talking about the same company who produced the world's first and only glasses-free 3D handheld and then went on to make multiple versions of the system without the 3D feature, so they may not have any problem contradicting their systems' main selling points.

[Tanooki]

Well I'd lean towards console but I can't. I know they're marketing it as one, or at worst a hybrid because they'd rather not snuff out the 3DS/2DS line yet. We've seen the tear down, other than the motherboard itself, the CPU/GPU Tegra X1 2017 custom, the RAM, bluetooth module, cooling system, internet storage chip, wifi module, all of them are pop and swap modular pieces. If they felt little to no reason to change the form factor other than the junk I said, they in theory could keep the system alive an easy decade. They could take the route of the GB to GBC or the ARM DS to 3DS line of what is there, and doubling or better the potential system RAM and CPU/GPU components.

 

We know some about the Tegra X2 to come with the smaller dye that's also very much faster, a lot better graphics pipeline on it, more ram, and the thing runs notably cooler and at a lower wattage for power savings. Think 2-3 years out, Super Switch or Switch Pro where they put in the freshest version of Wifi, freshest bluetooth standard, updated cooling, and then a variant of the Tegra X2. You'd get this jump of a system that's something between a PS3 and PS4 in various ways now to who knows what in real world performance. Like the PS4 to Pro, you make it so the software in most/all cases works entirely between BOTH models, and in time allow for 'Pro' only releases perhaps too much in the way of GBC hybrid vs GBC native carts went.

 

The cost savings would be huge, it wouldn't really alienate or confuse people like the WiiU cluterf**k that went down either, and you'd still come in at the affordable price likely of what the Switch is at now. Also think about those chip sizes. The 8GB one currently is supposedly on par with a standard blu-ray disc game in costs. What would it be 3 years out? 64GB, 128GB perhaps that or more? It would meet or exceed what you can get out of a double density blu ray/ultra blu ray 4K disc perhaps. Once the tech cheapens and matures a bit more you'll have physical tiny card media outstrip the value of a lame scratchable slow disc.

[Austin]

It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo treats the Switch like a handheld or a home console in terms of future hardware iterations. Historically Nintendo has had a tendency to put out new and improved versions of their handhelds every 1 or 2 years, but home consoles rarely get revisions until late in their lifespan; if they get any at all.

 

Another factor to consider is that the Big N's main selling point that they're trying to push with the Switch is it's ability to be used as both a portable and home console, so they might not feel inclined to put out revised versions of the Switch tailored to be just one or the other. On the other hand, we are talking about the same company who produced the world's first and only glasses-free 3D handheld and then went on to make multiple versions of the system without the 3D feature, so they may not have any problem contradicting their systems' main selling points.

They will need to treat it like a handheld when the 3DS bites the dust. There is no way they are just going to leave that market segment open for the taking.

[Tanooki]

I think that it only isn't being marketed as one right now is the 3DS. If that thing dies off hard, then they'll finally be forward open and honest to the joe shmoe out there who doesn't read game news like we do online. They said it was as much originally a hybrid, the whole killing off separate R&D of console and handheld into one. Singular media, singular format, something for the new now and now the past which the 3DS falls into the dying end of. Until they can get a bigger Switch library and system presence they don't want to kill off the multi tens of million seller cash cow.