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Switch ultimately outselling Wii?


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#151 Bill Loguidice OFFLINE  

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Posted Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:24 AM

Considering the Switch will probably be able to combine Nintendo's handheld and console markets, I can see it doing better than the Wii.

 

That's possible, but also a big ask. The Wii had fad power, enabling it to sell to non-traditional audiences. That can't be underestimated. It's quite possible all three of the current console platforms will break 100 million if they're on the market long enough, but it's doubtful any of them will do it with essentially a single SKU like past consoles that broke that barrier did (and the only one who hasn't gone multi-SKU is the Switch, which of course hasn't been on the market long enough to worry about doing so).



#152 Tanooki OFFLINE  

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Posted Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:32 AM

 

That's possible, but also a big ask. The Wii had fad power, enabling it to sell to non-traditional audiences. That can't be underestimated. It's quite possible all three of the current console platforms will break 100 million if they're on the market long enough, but it's doubtful any of them will do it with essentially a single SKU like past consoles that broke that barrier did (and the only one who hasn't gone multi-SKU is the Switch, which of course hasn't been on the market long enough to worry about doing so).

I'd have to agree with that watching stuff over the years play out, especially this wacked out generation.  We're approaching this month 4 years on the market with the PS4 and the One came out the same time, both more or less clones of each other internally other than a few basic tweak choices, closed PC boxes basically.  They saw how hard the last generation hit developers and themselves with losses diving in kind of early on the HD market.  They went ahead this go around going internally modular much like a computer has been since way back and more recent mobile devices.  Keep the hardware, keep the code, beef a few parts, and stretch it out and go go go.

 

They'll top 100M I have no doubt because they're about making it easier to pull some money off work by stretching out the lives of the systems further.  You revise, tweak the name slightly with the parts, allow the old to still run and the new to do it nicer yet the same.  It saves a ton on R&D and started over from scratch so the incentive is very much there to keep these active well into 2020 and beyond.  So many now are getting their gaming on mobile devices they're used to cheap, fast, and the trade off of being a little less nice visually to save on buying more hardware.

 

Switch may be too early but it's as obvious if not more given it was made and designed mainly by Nvidia off the Shield platform which they already upgraded time and again from that janky handheld, tablet, micro console, then micro console v2 (2017) which is a little beefier to handle 4K mode.  The guts of the Switch were torn out and everything it has part wise as a feature is its own module plugged into a main board and despite the slim shape with room to spare too including the battery area.  As it's basically a handheld I'd give it 2-3 years and you'll see that Shield 2 pop up and then a custom of that will be the Super Switch, Switch Pro, whatever.  Nintendo did it before Sony and MS got into the racket out of the gate with the GB Pocket, Color, Advance, DS to DSLite and DSi, etc.  Nintendo is the master of dragging out parts with or without a notable upgrade that keeps running games for years.  GB/GBC lasted from 1989 until 2003 or 4 whenever the last GBC title arrived after the GBA.



#153 Kosmic Stardust OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:05 AM

That's possible, but also a big ask. The Wii had fad power, enabling it to sell to non-traditional audiences. That can't be underestimated. It's quite possible all three of the current console platforms will break 100 million if they're on the market long enough, but it's doubtful any of them will do it with essentially a single SKU like past consoles that broke that barrier did (and the only one who hasn't gone multi-SKU is the Switch, which of course hasn't been on the market long enough to worry about doing so).

Wii had three different hardware revisions, not counting pack-ins.

NES had two, SNES had two. Game Cube had two. I think N64 only had one unless you count funtastic models.

Game Boy classic two revisions. GBC one, GBA three. Three DS, and a whole bunch of 3DS models.

Genesis had three. Sony PS2 and PS3 each had multiple fats, slims, and super slims.

Sony PS4 Pro and Xbox 1X are an entirely new class of hardware, not just minor upgrades and/or cost cutting measures.

9th gen hardware is here with Switch / PS4 Pro, XB1X. Or is Switch 9th gen and the updated Xbox/PS4 still 8th gen, as Wikipedia would have people believe?
https://en.m.wikiped...o_game_consoles
Will incremental upgrades of consoles mean the console industry is taking the PC/Mobile route, spelling the end of hardware generations? Switch is primed up for incremental updates with Tegra X2 in a couple years. And there will be a Switch 2 with full B/C.

#154 Tanooki OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:51 PM

Technically GBA has 5.  GBA, GBA SP 001, GBA SP 101 (brighter using a DSLite quality panel) and the GB MIcro. :)  And what's 5... GB Player.

(And the GB original had a 3rd model technically - Super Gameboy, it's a full GB board chipset in there.)

 

DS went with more if you want to throw the XL models in there as there was the DSi XL.  3DS was the most out of control though.  3DS, 3DS XL, 2DS, 2DS XL, New3DS, New3DSXL taking the lead with 6 models.

 

Genesis has 4 you forgot the Nomad.

 

 

Nintendo has been murky on stuff though on their take of things.  They consider the GB and GBC the same device just with the upgraded cpu/ram and color panel as the OG 89 GB runs anything that isn't dedicated GBC carts.  They've been consistent in it though because even with differing part numbers they consider their handhelds a 'family' affair so the various GBA, DS, and 3DS/2DS anything all are under the same umbrella.  I guess it makes sense as they basically run all the same core software other than a few exceptions due to the part upgrades on the DS/3DS line of stuff just as GBC did much earlier.



#155 Osgeld OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:12 PM

Genesis has 4 you forgot the Nomad.

 

5, CDX (I actually still want a CDX, that was a good concept, if flawed) 


Edited by Osgeld, Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:14 PM.


#156 Kosmic Stardust OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:07 PM

Technically GBA has 5.  GBA, GBA SP 001, GBA SP 101 (brighter using a DSLite quality panel) and the GB MIcro. :)  And what's 5... GB Player.
(And the GB original had a 3rd model technically - Super Gameboy, it's a full GB board chipset in there.)
 
DS went with more if you want to throw the XL models in there as there was the DSi XL.  3DS was the most out of control though.  3DS, 3DS XL, 2DS, 2DS XL, New3DS, New3DSXL taking the lead with 6 models.
 
Genesis has 4 you forgot the Nomad.

I was trying to avoid getting too technical. Handhelds can be roughly broken into Game Boy Family, DS family, and Switch. With the exception of GBA Micro, each hardware iteration in every family played most everything up to and including itself. For instance a GBA SP 101 plays all Game Boy family games and an N3DSxL plays all DS family games. Mark my words Switch family will get new hardware SKUs. I see a Switch 2 with upgraded Tegra X2 CPU and possibly a smaller handheld-only SKU with integrated joycon, once 3DS has run it's course.

#157 Tanooki OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:23 AM

Oh we're on the same page with that last comment.

 

I had a feeling when I knew of the Shield 2 being mothballed and what cemented it was the initial near release tear down on video showing all the components and people marveling how much was slammed into a tiny space and that how shockingly everything was basically compartmentalized and modular.  Each piece from the board can easily be wiggled free and replaced for easy repair -- and upgrade!  Nvidia knew what they were doing when they got tasked with it.  Their Shield console is modular, and it got a popped up 4K update in 2017 so it could handle that level of streaming on the console.  Whenever they roll out that Shield 2 with the X2 chipset I would imagine probably 2~years after you'll see the upgraded Switch arrive.  They have this special alliance going there where they can play the classic Gameboy (to 3DS) racket all over again where you end up doubling the ram, doubling the cpu/gpu potential and so on and wham you have a new system that still runs everything of the old.  Compound their chip prices on the games will continue to drop in time and you'll see massive games hit on those little cards.  Right now you can use a 16GB card for around the price of doing the modern bluray games, and as things go prices go with them.

 

On the side of the Tegra X2 upgrade I bet they do a handheld only mold of the device to save expenses.  If you remove the dock, detachable joycons(meaning some tech like the camera, maybe rumble, and ir are removed), and the hdmi cable that would take a good chunk out of it.  A basic Switch wired controller without those 3 things go for $30~ vs $70(pro) or $80 (2 joycons.)  I could see them doing the whole mini-Switch handheld for like $200-250.  They already sell the replacement docks/hdmi and the rest at retail now so it's not out of the realm at all.  Sell a base unit, someone wants to go TV later then they can buy a pro controller/joycons and the dock.  With the good margin on the prices they put those at it would be a money maker.



#158 Schizophretard ONLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:45 AM

I have the 2015 Shield and it already has 4K streaming capability. It was even marketed as the only device to do it at the time.

Edit: I also don't see how it is modular if one of the complaints is that the hard drive can't be removed and replaced.

#159 Punisher5.0 OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:07 AM

I was trying to avoid getting too technical. Handhelds can be roughly broken into Game Boy Family, DS family, and Switch. With the exception of GBA Micro, each hardware iteration in every family played most everything up to and including itself. For instance a GBA SP 101 plays all Game Boy family games and an N3DSxL plays all DS family games. Mark my words Switch family will get new hardware SKUs. I see a Switch 2 with upgraded Tegra X2 CPU and possibly a smaller handheld-only SKU with integrated joycon, once 3DS has run it's course.


I look forward to a X2 upgrade with 8 gigs of RAM and would no doubt by one. It would be nice if current games could get patched for better visuals or frame rates.

Looking back it's funny that people thought the debut Switch was getting a X2. There still isn't anything available with them yet. They seem to be more for automotive use right now.

#160 Austin OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:20 PM

 

5, CDX (I actually still want a CDX, that was a good concept, if flawed) 

 

7, X'Eye and LaserActive. ;)



#161 wood_jl OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:28 PM

I don't understand why they give these devices (much as the Wii U) a paltry 32gb of storage.  The Wii U is about 5 years old, and even it had a 32gb version (why did they bother with the 8gb??).

 

You can get a "premium" (meaning at least somewhat-higher-speed) Sandisk 32gb SD card for $14 (YES, FOURTEEN DOLLARS) right now, on Amazon......

 

https://www.amazon.com/SanDisk-Ultra-Class-Memory-SDSDUNC-032G-GN6IN/dp/B0143RT8OY

 

Just asking the question:  Is it unreasonable to expect more than $14 worth of storage, when spending hundreds of dollars on a new system, only to have the same 32gb as the discontinued 5-year old system?  Not to argue, but have I misunderstood something?   (I'm planning on getting one anyway, for what it's worth!!!!!)   :)



#162 Kosmic Stardust OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:43 PM

I don't understand why they give these devices (much as the Wii U) a paltry 32gb of storage.  The Wii U is about 5 years old, and even it had a 32gb version (why did they bother with the 8gb??).

 

I believe it is standard practice right now for devices to be fully expandable via SD card. My Switch has 32Gb internal storage plus the 200Gb Sandisk SD card I purchased early in the year through Amazon for $70. I've barely filled 5% of it yet, though truth be told I buy the majority of my games as physical card if the option is available. Storage wise, my largest game by far is Shantae Half Genie Hero. I recently purchased my first ever Android tablet, an open box Samsung Galaxy Tab A for $107, which comes with measley 8GB storage expandable to much much more via SD card. I already bought a 64Gb Samsung micro SD card to accompany it. Primarily I wanted the 7" tablet as a web browsing device I can use from the bedside to replace my aging Wii-U gamepad, and secondly for music streaming to my hifi stereo system (analog audio output via 1/8" stereo phono jack; none of that BT nonsense). Any additional games or apps I can download and play on it are a bonus. I'm still using a simpleton flip phone for talk/text though... :P

 

Looking forward, device manufacturers will not be able to compete pricewise with the falling costs of flash storage, so SD cards seem to be the way to go for user expandable storage into the future. I'm not too worried about it. Stick to name-brand flash media and you won't go wrong.



#163 Osgeld OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:15 PM

its the camera storage model, get a point n shoot today, it might have what 2 gig in it, heck I dont even know what mine is cause I have only used it once without a sd card



#164 Tanooki OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:30 PM

Kosmic is kind of right, especially in the handheld market it's stock standard outside of some cases (like apple) where you get 16 maybe 32GB of on board space in a device, and then it comes with a microSD card reader so Nintendo is in parity with that, not consoles.  5 years ago 32GB was acceptable yet not, kind of depends really because it kind of went both ways.  On one side it forced developers to be like historical console game makers making sure their games worked before shipping them, but on the other it excluded some games from showing up because maybe they needed the space to dump game contents as the drive speeds were just slow so it's a trade off.

 

The Switch though it was about keeping the price right, and using an existing mold which was the Shield Tablet and its got twice in the internal space of that and shares the memory card slot.  The other reason being cost savings, yes 32GB of space on a memory card maybe bought for around $15, and likely 1/2 that on the open market as parts for a device like Switch, but when you figure it out to a 500GB or 1TB of space on a little flash chip, that tech is insanely expensive.  There's no room for a stock standard SSD or mini HDD in laptops in that tiny form factor so that just wasn't happening.

 

Look at what those newer released 256GB memory cards go for, 1/2 that, even 1/3 it -- too much of a cost increase for the Switch and still would be at 1/2 the size of the PS4/One launch sizes which various installed games could eat up having maybe 10 games on there.  Just a bad idea all around.






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