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Tales from... THE FUTURE! (revisited)


Nathan Strum

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So, it's January. Funny, it seems like it was January just a few weeks ago.

 

The MacWorld Expo (Apple's big annual show-and-tell) is coming up in a couple of days. They almost always announce some new product at it. The question is - what will they release this year? (That would be 2008, by the way. I don't know about you, but I find that rather hard to believe.)

 

With that, I'll once again display my incredible wealth of ignorance, by making Technology Predictions for 2008. But first, it's time to look back on some of my past predictions, and see how I did.

 

Apple Predictions 2007:

  • Apple will announce a deal bringing the Beatles to their iTunes Store, during last years' SuperBowl. Wrong. Didn't happen. But EMI was the first to release DRM-free music through iTunes, and all of the Beatles' have their solo work now available through iTunes, so this seems inevitable.
  • Apple is going to announce a new, widescreen iPod, with touch-screen interface. Basically, the iPhone, without all of the phone functionality, and with a hard drive. Partially right. Well, I thought it might show up as early as the SuperBowl, but it did show up. It just didn't have the hard drive. (But it should.)
  • Expected OS X 10.5 to ship May or June. Wrong. It shipped in October.
  • Eight-core processor Mac Pros. Right. Not only did this happen, but now that's the standard configuration. I have one in my office at work, and it's extremely fast. At least for multiprocessor-aware applications.
  • Adobe: They'd ship Universal versions of their applications. Right. They did, although they shipped them earlier than I expected them to, since I thought they'd come out when OS X 10.5 did (or rather, Apple shipped 10.5 later than I expected).
  • Adobe's apps would be optimized to use Apple's Core Animation to accelerate everything. Wrong. Didn't happen. Probably next time.
  • Hoped against hope that Illustrator CS3 would include backwards-compatibility with FreeHand files. Right. Unbelievably, this actually happened. You can open FreeHand files in Illustrator, although the results are a little dicey. But it's better than nothing.
  • Apple will release a new version of Final Cut Studio, including major updates to Final Cut Pro, DVD Studio Pro, and Motion. These will all take advantage of the core graphics in 10.5, and offer major speed improvements, but generally minor feature bumps otherwise. Partially right. Yawn. The updates were all minor, except for a slew of nice features in Soundtrack Pro, and the addition of 3D effects in Motion. Final Cut added a few updates, but it was far from a major overhaul. DVD Studio Pro has almost nothing new in it, but I suspect it's because they're waiting for the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD dust to settle.
  • iLife '07 and iWorks '07 will ship. These will likewise be accelerated for 10.5, and in fact, will require it. iWorks will finally include some spreadsheet functionality, and hopefully regain some of the basic database tools that AppleWorks used to have. Partially right. They both shipped (but are called '08 instead of '07), but don't require 10.5. There's a spreadsheet program (and a very nice one) but no database.
  • I gave the following percentages for these predictions: Eight-core Mac Pro - 85%. New Adobe software: Photoshop - 90%, Illustrator - 75%, InDesign - 80%, After Effects (by September) - 65%. Illustrator w/ FreeHand compatibility - 5%. New Final Cut Studio - 95%. Full Blu-Ray authoring support - 45%. Some Blu-Ray support - 70%. New iLife and iWorks - 85%. Partially right. Did pretty good, for the most part.
  • New MacBook Pros by the end of Summer - an 80% chance of happening. A super-lightweight MacBook - 35%. Partially right. MacBook Pros were updated during the Summer, but still used the old form factor. Lightweight MacBooks aren't here... yet.
  • AppleTV will become more useful and TiVo-like. But there's only a 20% of this. Wrong. Still hasn't happened. But I was right in that it was a long-shot.

Apple products that I predicted wouldn't happen in 2007:

  • Apple-branded high-definition TVs. Right. Still not here, and still won't happen.
  • A tablet computer. Right. Not yet.
  • Apple officially supporting Windows on their computers. Right. Still nope. You can run it, but they don't offer support for it.
  • Apple allowing OS X to run on generic PCs. Right. Still nope, and never will.

And now...

Apple predictions for '08:

  • Apple will release a lightweight MacBook. Most likely at MacWorld Expo. Rumor has it that it will use flash memory for storage. I think it will use a combination of flash memory (for ultra-low power consumption) and a hard drive for capacity, and will shuffle files back and forth as it needs to, transparent to the user. Also rumored is that it will have an external optical drive to cut down on space, but I'm not sure I buy into that. That seems a little too inelegant for Apple. Rather, if there's no internal optical drive, there will be some sort of docking station to hook it up to a desktop Mac (or larger notebook) to piggy-back that machine's optical drive. Basically, you'll sync it up to a host computer, the way you would with an iPod (or the Apple TV). (Addendum: If the flash memory is 64 GB or higher, there will be no hard drive in it.)
  • Apple will release a touch-screen tablet computer, with a stand/docking station that basically turns it into an iMac (with the addition of a wireless keyboard and mouse). I don't expect to see this until Summer, but it could be Steve Jobs' "one more thing" at MWExpo on Tuesday. Axiotron will decide to go out of business shortly thereafter.
  • Some major update of the Apple TV. I don't think Apple has given up on this yet. I'm hoping they'll add DVR capabilities to it, but I'm not holding my breath. I expect it to be more of a movie/TV show player for stuff you buy (or rent) through iTunes. The difference will be - you can rent movies directly through it from the comfort of your sofa.
  • Updated iPhone. 3G is already a given, but I expect to see one with GPS built-in, too. Hopefully. But not until Summer.
  • Blu-Ray support will finally show up this Summer at WWDC. With it, will come either an update to DVD Studio Pro, or an all new app for authoring Blu-Ray discs. More on Blu-Ray predictions right about ... now.

HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, and the next-gen console wars predictions

Okay, I'm reaching back almost two years for these:

  • The PS3 would be the dominant console, and the XBox 360 would be second place. Wrong. The extra time on the market, price difference, and Halo 3 all gave Microsoft a big lead over the PS3. This despite a lot of quality control problems with the 360.
  • The Wii might climb over Microsoft to take second place. Sort-of right. The Wii did pass Microsoft, but it has now taken over first place.
  • Blu-Ray will beat out HD-DVD. Not yet, but soon. See below.

And finally...

HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, and the next-gen console wars predictions for 2008:

  • The Wii will increase its lead - if it can keep good software coming. People will get bored playing tennis in their living room after awhile.
  • The PS3 will remain a distant third unless two things happen:
    1. Blu-Ray is declared the winner, and the format wars end. Then people will be actively looking for a Blu-Ray player. But only if:
    2. Sony slashes the price of the PS3. I expect to see a slim-line, lower cost PS3, but not until the end of 2009. Sony needs to cut their prices this Summer, to be competitive with the XBox 360. If they were really smart, they'd undercut the 360 by $50. Timing the price cut with the release of Gran Turismo 5 wouldn't hurt, either.

    • Blu-Ray will win over HD-DVD. The other week (right before CES) Warner announced it would be dropping HD-DVD, in favor of Blu-Ray. The latest news suggests that the last two major studios - Paramount and Universal - may also abandon HD-DVD, since together they represent only about 30% of the potential content. Paramount reportedly has an escape clause in its exclusivity deal with the HD-DVD consortium, that lets them out if Warner drops out. Also, some reports indicate that Universal's deal has already expired. Things look bad for HD-DVD, since right after the Warner announcement, the HD-DVD backers postponed, then outright canceled their CES keynote presentation. HD-DVD is on life-support, and the plug is about to be pulled. Sales for HD-DVD were reportedly 1/3 of Blu-Ray sales, and with more studios jumping ship, retail stores aren't going to want to waste shelf space on a handful of movies for a dying format. I expect HD-DVD to be gone by the end of Summer. Completely gone. Remember how fast Divx DVDs vanished? Look for the same thing. HD-DVD had an uphill battle all the way. Here are some other factors contributing to its demise:
      1. Sony was determined to win. At any cost. Toshiba underestimated them, and their ability to partner with (or bully) other manufacturers and movie studios. Toshiba is not a movie studio. They didn't have as much credibility with them.
      2. HD-DVD: the acronym. Guess what? Average consumers are confused by acronyms. Consumers hate being confused by acronyms. There are a lot of them floating around right now. HDTV, HDV, HD-DVD, HDMI, DVD... but only one Blu-Ray. At first, I thought Sony was stupid to call it that. But what it does, is distance Blu-Ray from everything else. It removes a layer of confusion, by being different. I understood this most clearly when talking to my parents about the hi-def formats. They knew what Blu-Ray was. HD-DVD got lost in amongst other acronyms. Sony still has some work to do though - my folks didn't think their current DVDs would play on a Blu-Ray player.
      3. Toshiba was (for all intents and purposes) the only company making HD-DVD players. This scares consumers. There's strength in numbers. Toshiba is a well-known company - but it's not Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic, Philips, Sharp, Samsung and LG.

    • Lawsuits galore. After HD-DVD disappears, expect people to start suing retailers, movie studios and Toshiba, for having sold them an obsolete technology. Movie studios (or retailers) will probably offer a coupon for $5 off of Blu-Ray movies, for every HD-DVD turned in, just to appease people and boost sales. The lawsuits will all be thrown out, because hey - that's technology, kiddies.

Well, that's enough of that. As early as Tuesday, we'll start seeing just how wrong one person can be! :roll:

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Toshiba announced today they're slashing prices on their HD-DVD players. They claim this is due to their overwhelming popularity. Yeah, right. They're panicking, and the public is going to pick up on it. Good luck there, Toshiba. But one thing they're doing right, is touting its ability to upscale standard DVDs.

 

Of course, you can buy an HDMI-equipped upscaling DVD player for under $100 now anyway. But hey - gotta sell those HD-DVD players somehow.

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The real question, to my mind, isn't/wasn't HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, but DVD vs. Blu-Ray.

 

I still think that by the time people are willing/able to replace their DVD collections with the next step up, Blu-Ray (and HD-DVD) will be obsolete technology.

 

But what do I know? :)

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Nice predictions BUT...

 

Apple is going to sway into gaming this year. On the mobile side iphone/ipod they'll promote current games as well as a new apple TV with bluetooth ability for controllers etc.

The phantom(the vaporware pc games console of the late 90's / early 00's) will essentially be represented by the future apple tv by way of the apple tv and mac mini converging allowing for an apple or microsoft based games machine all inside a neat little tivo device. Think wii/mac mini and apple tv combined in some way as in the ATMARK PIPPIN attempts years back. Sorry for the jumbled logic here but I think you get what I mean.

 

Maybe even a rebirth of the Newton but in the form of the iPhone or WiPhone. ;)

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Apple has too many things going on currently (computers, iPods, music, video, Apple TV) for them to enter gaming territory (beyond iPod games.) What they need to do is update the AppleTV with more functionality and the ability to view true HD video. If they don't drop the ball on AppleTV it could potentially be the HD DVD/Blu-Ray disc killer. Sure they'd have to sort through all the video DRM stuff but they've gone through it with music already...

 

...aha! Apple TV Take 2!

Movie rentals plus HD movies w/ Dolby 5.1 rentals.

Now just gimme a way to download and OWN the movie without renting and I'm there. Maybe Take 3?

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Well, let's see how I did:

  • Apple will release a lightweight MacBook. Most likely at MacWorld Expo. Rumor has it that it will use flash memory for storage. I think it will use a combination of flash memory (for ultra-low power consumption) and a hard drive for capacity, and will shuffle files back and forth as it needs to, transparent to the user. Also rumored is that it will have an external optical drive to cut down on space, but I'm not sure I buy into that. That seems a little too inelegant for Apple. Rather, if there's no internal optical drive, there will be some sort of docking station to hook it up to a desktop Mac (or larger notebook) to piggy-back that machine's optical drive. Basically, you'll sync it up to a host computer, the way you would with an iPod (or the Apple TV). (Addendum: If the flash memory is 64 GB or higher, there will be no hard drive in it.)

Not bad. I was sort-of right about the flash memory, in that you can get a 64 GB flash drive in place of the 80 GB HD, but wrong about them working together. I was also wrong about the external optical drive, but had the right idea about the laptop being able to use other computers' optical drives (but I didn't get the wireless aspect of it). Incidentally, the idea of loading movies onto the laptop vs. using a DVD drive makes sense - especially if you're traveling. A stack of DVDs can eat up more space, and become more of a hassle to carry around, than the laptop itself. It harkens back to carrying a CD player and a stack of CDs with me on vacation. It was a hassle, and I inevitably left something at home I wished I'd carried with me, or brought something I didn't listen to. The iPod solved all of that. Of course, it would make more sense if you could own the movies. But that may happen anyway, at some point.

 

  • Some major update of the Apple TV. I don't think Apple has given up on this yet. I'm hoping they'll add DVR capabilities to it, but I'm not holding my breath. I expect it to be more of a movie/TV show player for stuff you buy (or rent) through iTunes. The difference will be - you can rent movies directly through it from the comfort of your sofa.

No DVR (of course) but you can rent movies directly from your sofa now. I really don't like the fact that once you begin watching a movie, you can only watch it for the next 24 hours. Still, I'm impressed Apple got as many studios on board with this as they did. But it's not really that much of a surprise, since this rental scheme is all win-win for the studios. It's pure profit. At least until someone figures out the hack that lets you keep the movies you rent. I expect that to happen within hours of the first movies being rented.

 

  • Updated iPhone. 3G is already a given, but I expect to see one with GPS built-in, too. Hopefully. But not until Summer.

No GPS yet, but they did come up with a clever interim alternative. Also, it's nice to see the iPod Touch become more useful with e-mail and maps.

 

Not a bad morning for Apple. I think they'll sell more of the MacBook Airs than they can build. I'd like one. The laptop I lug around from work now is certainly nice, but it's a heavy beast.

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Looks cool, but apparently we have to wait for the next firmware upgrade to use that feature.

Albert got his working.

 

Of course, I'd actually have to buy an iPhone, to be able to update it, to use that feature. That ain't gonna happen for a lonnnng time. ;)

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Sort of works for me - if I'm at the front of my house it picks up 1 cell tower, if I go to the back of the house it picks up another. 1 too few to triangulate against.

 

Rearranging the icon's is pretty neat - looks like jello in motion ;)

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How long has the update been out? Guess I haven't been keeping up.

 

Regardless, I have 3rd party apps on my iPhone and want to keep them, so I can't update it until someone finds a way around this (I may have to wait until after the SDK comes out.)

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HAHAHA I was wayyyyyyyyyy off.

 

Nice laptop they are putting out and I couldnt agree more that an optical drive is no longer a necessity in a luggable form that is.

Not sure I would want something that light... I just picked up a macbook though so I cant wait to see what apple puts out next year when I go to upgrade.

 

Apple TV is going to be a blanket media center down the road though. I can see it and the mac mini merging to a degree. When that happens, pc games on the family TV will happen whether or not they support it is another thing.

Then again that's pretty much possible now with a mac mini.

 

You made some real good calls there. What's your predictions for the next round?

 

 

Nice predictions BUT...

 

Apple is going to sway into gaming this year. On the mobile side iphone/ipod they'll promote current games as well as a new apple TV with bluetooth ability for controllers etc.

The phantom(the vaporware pc games console of the late 90's / early 00's) will essentially be represented by the future apple tv by way of the apple tv and mac mini converging allowing for an apple or microsoft based games machine all inside a neat little tivo device. Think wii/mac mini and apple tv combined in some way as in the ATMARK PIPPIN attempts years back. Sorry for the jumbled logic here but I think you get what I mean.

 

Maybe even a rebirth of the Newton but in the form of the iPhone or WiPhone. ;)

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You made some real good calls there. What's your predictions for the next round?

In the main post I've got predictions about the 3G iPhone (and I'll add here that it will go up to 32 GB for storage), Blu-Ray support and the tablet Mac. I think the iPhone and Blu-Ray will happen around the time of Apple's developer conference (the WWDC). Not sure about the tablet - but I think they'll wait and see how the MacBook Air does first, before deciding on whether or not to bring the tablet to market. One thing though - if they do bring it to market, it will basically be the MacBook Air, without a keyboard, and with a touch screen. And it will have a nifty fold-out stand for desktop use with a keyboard and mouse.

 

I also think Apple may build a stand-alone multi-touch trackpad, to sell as a replacement mouse. But I'm less certain about that. It would seem to make sense though, as they begin integrating that functionality into their main OS (as evidenced in the MacBook Air).

 

The iMacs will likely see their annual speed increase around September. And I suspect we'll see revamped MacBooks and MacBook Pros, with the multi-touch trackpad.

 

One spec that impressed me about the MacBook Air, is they've managed to shave two pounds off the weight of the MacBook, and almost 2 1/2 pounds off the 15" MacBook Pro. That's really significant. Still wish the battery was user-replaceable though. Admittedly, I only have one battery for the MacBook Pro I use, and I've gotten along just fine.

 

Finally, Bob Cringely is speculating that Apple may buy Adobe. That's an interesting prediction, and would make sense given some of Apple's previous acquisitions (Final Cut Pro, DVD Studio Pro and some of their other applications started out as software they bought from other companies). The question is, does Apple have enough money to do it? But if they did... they could really control the content creation market, by tweaking everything to run better on OS X than on Windows.

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...until someone figures out the hack that lets you keep the movies you rent. I expect that to happen within hours of the first movies being rented.

And the fight begins!

Rolling back the clock worked initially? My high school students could have figured that out that hack. I can't believe Apple's the engineers overlooked that, unless they were in a hurry.
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Finally, Bob Cringely is speculating that Apple may buy Adobe. That's an interesting prediction, and would make sense given some of Apple's previous acquisitions (Final Cut Pro, DVD Studio Pro and some of their other applications started out as software they bought from other companies)

 

iTunes, the iTunes visualizer, widgets, and countless others started that way too in recent years. The only difference is they were applications not corporations the size of Adobe. There's a sizable difference there. I'd love to see it happen though for the very reasons he outlines in that article. Good read.

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Apple's reported earnings were good yesterday (and they have over $18 billion in cash now), but their stock has been tumbling due to lower than expected (by whiny investment firms) next-quarter forecasts. Plus, Apple didn't release anything that will forever change everyone's lives for the better, end world hunger, bring peace to the Middle-East, cure the common cold, and julienne fries at MacWorld Expo. So they just aren't sexy anymore.

 

I would expect they'd want their stock strong again before going after Adobe, since such a deal would likely involve a lot of shares trading hands.

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Well, I think now would be a good time for Apple to go after Adobe. Even though Apple's stock is down, and would not net them the best deal, their weaker market position might cause the anti-trust regulators to turn the other way.

 

Also, Microsoft's bid to take over Yahoo is a bigger target than Apple/Adobe would be, and so the Apple deal would be more likely to go through, when used as a point of comparison with the regulators.

 

And besides... it'd be really nice to have Adobe software not break whenever Apple releases a minor software update. ;)

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And besides... it'd be really nice to have Adobe software not break whenever Apple releases a minor software update. ;)

 

Yep, that update has been a problem for Cinema 4D as well. Apparently something to do with the movie rentals introduced in the latest QT version. QT does some sort of DRM check on all active media and in doing so can change the file permissions. So while you're in the middle of a render QT checks the file and suddenly the permissions have changed and the app writing the file no longer has permission to access it. Evidently this happens roughly every 10 minutes so mainly affects big render projects.

 

And did you notice they've delayed release of AppleTV Take 2? Coincidence? My take on it is that in having to fix QT so it works with all the pro apps, it now breaks the movie rental stuff on AppleTV and they estimate it'll take another couple weeks to sort it all out. That's my theory anyway.

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Apple's reported earnings were good yesterday (and they have over $18 billion in cash now), but their stock has been tumbling due to lower than expected (by whiny investment firms) next-quarter forecasts. Plus, Apple didn't release anything that will forever change everyone's lives for the better, end world hunger, bring peace to the Middle-East, cure the common cold, and julienne fries at MacWorld Expo. So they just aren't sexy anymore.

Well I used this to my advantage - I now own 6 shares of Apple, which I got for 131 a share. I plan to get more shares next week when the next deposit to my SEP-IRA should occur.

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I own ten - I was given five shares as a present when the stock was still under $20, and it has split since then. I keep expecting it to split again, but it hasn't yet.

 

I really, really wish I could have bought 100 shares when it was down to $12 just a few years ago. I wanted to, but didn't have the money.

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QT does some sort of DRM check on all active media and in doing so can change the file permissions. So while you're in the middle of a render QT checks the file and suddenly the permissions have changed and the app writing the file no longer has permission to access it. Evidently this happens roughly every 10 minutes so mainly affects big render projects.

I can't believe someone doesn't test this stuff before it goes out the door. Checking all active media just seems really stupid and inefficient. There has to be a better way to do that, where it only affects iTunes (or relies on iTunes being the foreground app before doing any checks).

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Three more interesting... Tales from THE FUTURE!!!

 

Well, okay... they're just articles. But still, they tie in with this particular blog entry.

 

First, the PS3 finally managed to outsell the XBox 360 in January. Pundits claim it's due to an upswing in Blu-Ray (caused by the downswing in HD-DVD). Microsoft, of course, says it's only temporary until they can increase supplies of the 360.

 

HD-DVD has been dealt another blow, as Wal-Mart drops it.

 

And rumors are that Toshiba itself is finally planning to drop HD-DVD altogether.

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