It seems you guys are trying to gauge what a new release can sell in terms of units. Hopefully the following data can help you guys grasp the market.
Wave 1 Games Sales (2017-2020)
Fast Food 64 - 300+ (and still selling)
JagZombies - 300+ (and still selling)
Frogz 64 - 141 (no longer moving)
Fast Food 64 Holiday Snacks - 78
Ants - 56 (still selling slowly)
Frogz 64 Xmas - 21 CD/25 cart
Saucer Wars - 27
So over the course of 3 years and 7 game releases I have 948+ units sold. I'm not sure if that data helps you guys come to terms with the market or not. If something like Phear or Dactyl Joust were released in their prototype form I would be willing to guess that those games would move 250-300 units. I'm not sure a Quake prototype would even be possible on the Jag. Yes I have seen Doom, AVP, Wolfenstein and the Heretic demo, but I'm still not convinced it can do Quake. But that's a whole other can of worms I don't want to open.
There are other factors that go into a Jaguar games release that people seem to be overlooking. Limited runs such as Battle Sphere and Another World are good examples. Nearly everyone agrees that although very nice looking in the graphics department, BSG is a pretty much average game that some people even find boring. The fact that it was shiny and new and produced in a limited quantity may have been what fueld all of the units to be moved. Another World can be purchased right now for PS4 or Nintendo Switch for $10 and it's a BETTER version than the Jaguar version. Again these same factors apply.
Anyway the more that time goes on the less people will be interested in Jaguar. The interest isn't going to GROW. Right now there are some FANTASTIC 7800 games available in the AtariAge store and elsewhere. AAA TITLES! But I can guarantee those games aren't producing the same kind of sales as stuff from other consoles just because the interest level in 7800 has to be dwindling down after all of these years. You also have to take into consideration the consoles natural decline in interest.
Look at the Jaguar Game Drive from SainT. This is the final stop in the road for some people. They want this just to archive the Jaguar and run the original library of games amd possibly a few homebrews that have been made freely available over the years and thats it! They're done. I even had one user ADMIT this to me in another forum, that he didn't intend on EVER buying anything new for the Jaguar once he got his hands on the Game Drive that it would remain in the console forever.
Thats no disrespect at all to SainT or his product. I actually like that dude, (he's a nice guy) and if HE didn't make an SD cart somebody else would have eventually anyway, that was inevitable. Just like the decline of an already niche market.
Anyway I'm saying all of this because if you are trying to predict sales numbers of a hypothetical killer game, there are way more factors involved than what some of you seem to think.
As to what CJ said earlier when we were going back and forth and I agreed with him, like he confirmed, releasing a game (on cart anyway) can really get expensive as shit! That's no joke. Not just for the raw cartridge materials. The printed materials can be expensive as well. At least when you are doing small runs like a Jaguar release they can. Also add to the fact that the Jaguar user base is WORLDWIDE and spread out among its minority of fans and then you get into what I call shipping HELL. Tarrifs and newly enforced import fees can add to the cost of production.
Im not sure how Piko keeps up to be honest. Props to him, I would imagine most of the production funds for his new Jag releases come from his new releases on OTHER consoles.
This turned into a ramble. Sorry. Wasn't my intention....
EDIT--- 700 units sold on any new game for the Jaguar is an unrealistic goal/expectation. It doesn't matter what game it is. That's just not going to happen