PS3 catches Wii in 2011, 360 a distant 3rd

[Gregory DG]

I found this to be highly amusing...

 

 

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/12/10/analyst-...to-wii-by-2011/

 

So... The PS3 is just going to go gangbusters, huh? Maybe if console prices stay the same. But I doubt MS will sit on it's hand much longer with the 360's price. I bet it drops sometime early next year.

[+remowilliams]

I think someone owns some Sony stock.

[supergamer]

Nevermind that by 2011 there'll be new systems. While it might seem like it's predicting the ultimate "tying", if you take it literally it implies Sony's failure for this generation.

 

FWIW I think Sony can do better if and when they get the publishers together. PS2 took off slow too, they were hard to find and the library sucked for the first year or two. Sony tends to not give up on their formats that quickly and that helps them. The PSP was damn near dead, but they keep at it and it's holding its own at least with shelf space.

[BydoEmpire]

They also think the PS3 will catch the 360 by the beginning of 2008? Riiiiight. I guess you never know, there ARE a few weeks left... By the end of 2008? Also highly, highly unlikely. By the end of 2009? Too far away to predict, but certainly possible.

[Jess Ragan]

Fact: analysts think too highly of their own opinions.

Fact: analysts fellate Sony whenever the opportunity arises.

Fact: analysts are almost always wrong.

[StormSurge]

I thought I was going to find a link to an Onion article in this thread.

[supergamer]

I thought I was going to find a link to an Onion article in this thread.

 

Here ya go:

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/55794

[bretthorror]

I am assuming the only reason the guy thinks the PS3 will all the sudden go off like all hell is because of blu-ray and HD finding its way into more homes. It's obvious people still buy consoles for the games they want to play or the PS3 would already be selling the beat hell. "Cheap blu-ray player" isn't the selling point now that it was on launch, especially since the players seems to be lackluster. No end to the format war and DVD still plowing the hell out of everything. From the sounds of it, GTA V will be a PS3 exclusive and that's the only thing I think could get the system on track. And, by then it could be too late and way too late to reach 80 million units. A system has to have a game that a lot of their user base all want to play. 360 has Halo, Wii has... well lots for it, PS3 has nothing. That's why I think 80 million units is crazy. I also want to know why/how Sony is going to (apparently) take away the 360 fans and switch them to their side, which seems to be what has to happen according to the analyst. I personally think these "analysts" just make some outrageous notion (you hear a new on every day) just to get some attention, then forget about it because come 2011, no one is gonna give two shits about some jerk who predicted which console would sell more back in 2007.

[rxd]

I read that by then the PS4 will be out featuring a death-ray drive and the new Colossus multicore cpu designed by Sony and Forbin Inc. with a HAL9000 gpu.

 

I also hear the 40 Tera byte version can't play PS2 games but can enslave the world...

Edited December 12, 2007 by rxd

[JamesD]

The major flaws in that are:

MS is likely to integrate HD-DVD as the main drive for te 360 by then.

Nintendo may introduce a Hi-Def version of the Wii.

A separate player that plays HD-DVD and Blue Ray will have been available for some time and will probably be under $100 so why buy a PS3.

But then, a PS3 should be cheaper by then too.

[Fretwobbler]

Considering my 2007 model PC makes all the next gen consoles look like a Magnavox Oddysee, I cant wait to see the difference between my 2011 model PC and a PS3.

 

God that will make me laugh. Roll on 2011.

 

At least the PS3 might cost less than a PC by 2011. That could be some small consolation.

Edited December 12, 2007 by Fretwobbler

[MCHufnagel]

At least the PS3 might cost less than a PC by 2011. That could be some small consolation.

I don't know what prices are like where you live, but I have a high-end gaming PC that was built in 2007 and it was considerably more expensive than a PS3. Even if you built one yourself, no way will a high end gaming PC be less expensive.

[+remowilliams]

I don't know what prices are like where you live, but I have a high-end gaming PC that was built in 2007 and it was considerably more expensive than a PS3.

I don't understand why people keep throwing that out there. The cost of a top end video card for a PC is $599 by itself.

[godslabrat]

The real tell of the lie is that the PS3 is the ONLY system that increases sharply, and not by a gradual parabolic curve. That indicates that this bullshit artist, erm, I mean, "analyst", sees a crucial advantage the PS3 has that the other two systems lack. What advantage would that be? Price drops? Hit games? Exclusives? Promotions? Nintendo and Microsoft will have all that in spades. And, let's not forget that the PS3 has the LEAST amount of buzz going for it compared to the other two systems. That's not to say it's a bad system, but if you pick any ten people eager to get a new console, I'll bet less than two of them are most anxious for a PS3.

 

As my algebra teacher used to say, "Show your work."

[cimerians]

I have all three systems. I kick ass.

 

The PS3 kicks ass too.

 

So there!

 

[ZylonBane]

MS is likely to integrate HD-DVD as the main drive for te 360 by then.

MS would never do anything as stupid as that. From the very start, they've been focused on making the 360 as affordable as possible, even going so far as offering a unit without a hard drive. Adding an HD-DVD drive would increase the cost of the unit, while adding no gaming functionality.

 

The only reason they released the HD-DVD attachment at all was to provide a counter bullet point to the PS3's BluRay playback ability. Unlike Sony, MS isn't invested in either side of the format wars. So they're extremely unlikely to try to position the 360 as anything but a pure game console.

[supergamer]

MS would never do anything as stupid as that. From the very start, they've been focused on making the 360 as affordable as possible, even going so far as offering a unit without a hard drive. Adding an HD-DVD drive would increase the cost of the unit, while adding no gaming functionality.

 

The only reason they released the HD-DVD attachment at all was to provide a counter bullet point to the PS3's BluRay playback ability. Unlike Sony, MS isn't invested in either side of the format wars. So they're extremely unlikely to try to position the 360 as anything but a pure game console.

 

I could see MS integrating it if it ever got to the point where HD drives were $30 wholesale vs say $20 for DVD. Like Sony integrated the network adapter on the PS2 Slim. But I don't think they'd ever make games that required it, as it'd fragment the market and confuse buyers.

 

But as you say, MS isn't nvolved in the format wars directly. I do think there's some amount of pride at stake for them, as Sony was their target all along.

[moycon]

MS would never do anything as stupid as that. From the very start, they've been focused on making the 360 as affordable as possible, even going so far as offering a unit without a hard drive. Adding an HD-DVD drive would increase the cost of the unit, while adding no gaming functionality.

 

Uh Oh Zylon. You may be confused....

 

http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Gaming/Console/P4G5C3U2?page=1

 

Granted there isn't any hard physical evidence at this point. But I can recall prior to the Elite being announced that articles just like this one had begun circling for weeks and weeks. Then a picture showed up. Natually some people claimed it was only an early prototype and no way was MS stupid enough to create yet another version of the 360. Then the Elite came out.

 

All I'm saying is, you never know until you know.

[godslabrat]

\

Uh Oh Zylon. You may be confused....

 

http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Gaming/Console/P4G5C3U2?page=1

 

I skimmed the article. One thing stuck out at me... "Also being discussed is the development of an open standard docking port similar to the 17 pin iPod port. This would allow all manufacturers to use the same port for docking. "

 

If they want to use the "same port", what the hell is wrong with USB? Why does every manufacturer have to keep making their own "universal connector", instead of using the one that's been in use for 10 years?

[Gregory DG]

Why does every manufacturer have to keep making their own "universal connector", instead of using the one that's been in use for 10 years?

Maybe they want to lock you into their design so that you can't attach peripherals that wouldn't work anyway?

 

Also, does USB have to be licensed or can any company add ports for no fee? That would also be a deterrent.

[+SpiceWare]

If they want to use the "same port", what the hell is wrong with USB? Why does every manufacturer have to keep making their own "universal connector", instead of using the one that's been in use for 10 years?

In the case of the iPod - the Dock Connector supports USB, Firewire, Video(both S-Video and composite), stereo output as well as a serial connection(probably how the car adapters control the iPod). Can you imagine how bulky the iPod would be to have all those connectors separate?

[ZylonBane]

Uh Oh Zylon. You may be confused....

 

http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Gaming/Console/P4G5C3U2?page=1

If that thing actually comes out, I'll eat my hat.

 

/doesn't own a hat

[Danno]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111797772...yId=13&cs=1

 

“It’s kind of like the theatrical market,” says Fox homevid topper Mike Dunn. “It’s been around 80 years and it’s tied to product. We’re tied to product.”

 

“The table is probably set for high-def in 2008,” says Dunn. “I think by CES it will be pretty clear there will be one format.”

Edited December 15, 2007 by Danno

[Bilnick]

There is no need to integrate a HD DVD player into the 360 at this point unless they come out with another Elite type model.

 

Obviously a standard DVD has enough storage capacity for this generation of games. Most people would say the 360 library equals or exceeds the PS3 library despite being "handcuffed" by the DVD format.

[Danno]

There is no need to integrate a HD DVD player into the 360 at this point unless they come out with another Elite type model.

 

Obviously a standard DVD has enough storage capacity for this generation of games. Most people would say the 360 library equals or exceeds the PS3 library despite being "handcuffed" by the DVD format.

MS made the external HD-DVD drive an option (quite smartly), knowing that ultimately one format would prevail, but not really knowing which one. MS will easily just make a Blu-Ray add-on if and when HD-DVD is declared dead in the water.

 

Sony's built-in Blu-Ray was certainly more risky, but it looks like it will ultimately pay off. The last 2 weeks worth of Home Video industry articles keeps pointing more and more to a number of forthcoming announcements at the CES regarding the future of Hi-Def Optical media - and they're all pointing Blu.