In The future, Do You See CD Consoles Being Replaced?

[fdurso224]

Hi guys,

 

I have a question to ask. I used to remember in the 1990's that CD Concoles (fully dedicated) replaced the Cartridge based systems. It had a slow start and gradually moved in, but it replaced the cartridge system.

 

Now, in the future (maybe next generation or two or three). Do you see the CD and CD consoles being replaced by systems that will be fully dedicated by use of down loading games through a internet connection (or something similar in this direction)?

 

 

Anthony....

[Artlover]

I hope everything isn't replaced with DLC. In my opinion, most people probably want a physcial product if they are paying for something.

 

To that end, what I DO see happening is a change in formats, and we'll be comming full circle back to things simmilar to cartridges and hucards. Using things like SD cards (which currently go up to 32gigs) and USB memory sticks (which go up to 64 gigs) instead.

 

Prices will come down as the technology becomes more mainstream. Not that it's all that expencive now. An 8gig SD card can be had for $35 - delivered.

 

Would also be cheaper when they do away with write access and create read only SD cards and USB sticks using masked rom technologies.

 

Then who knows what the future has in store. Maybe crystal memory in the form of little cubes will finally make it out of the experimental labs and you'll beable to buy your games that way. That would gives a whole new meaning to the GameCube.

[akator]

I hope everything isn't replaced with DLC. In my opinion, most people probably want a physcial product if they are paying for something.

 

Agreed, people get more satisfaction from physically touching something they purchase.

 

That said, most of us are part of an "older" retail model that is changing. We were trained to enjoy the packaging and dislike just paying for data without physical existence. We also know that data gets corrupted, hardware is unreliable, and that the only thing left from our purchase is a physical copy that can be salvaged.

 

Downloading is the wave of the future, even if it takes the passage of our generation for it to fully happen. I hate reading things online, especially in-depth articles, and prefer lengthy stuff in print -- but today's youth is more accustomed to it. The same goes for TV, movies, etc., we're all part of the old model and indelibly influenced by our formative years and the society that existed then.

 

While it's inevitable, I think it's a shame that more permanent physical media (print, CD, DVD, cartridges, etc.) will eventually be gone. Even though it will take years or decades, I treasure the "old" stuff not only from my past but from my progenitors. I have books and objects going back multiple generations, all of which could be lost when things become "data only." Only the data deemed marketable will be prominent, and the physical connection to the past will also be lost.

 

After all, most of us have played emulators. Does an emulator really capture the experience of playing with an original controller, on an analog TV, with the original games? Of course not. Regardless, that is the future whether we like it or not. Change happens, just like shit.

[Wickeycolumbus]

I could see them being replaced by downloads, but I will really hate that. Plus, with the larger games (especially the PS3's bluray games) take up tons of space, so the systems would have to have gigantic hard drives, which would make the systems crazy expensive.

[Rybags]

Doubt it.

 

Of course, the logical path would be to flash cards.

 

Except the one huge problem would be that they would be easy to copy. And the other problem is that it's not exactly the most reliable storage medium.

 

I'd expect the next logical step would be to BluRay. 50 gig or whatever on a disc.

[moycon]

I think they are conditioning us to get used to digital downloads now.

10 years from now, things like TVs and videogame systems will wirelessly connect to some sort of "consumer net" where yes, you will buy your videogames, movies, etc... Pack-rats who waste valuable shelf space on 100's (1000's) of old games we rarely play anyways are a dying breed.

[roland p]

Maybe in the future you only have a controller and a tv-set. Your console is hosted by a company named Microsoft,Sega or Nintendo. images are transferred directly to your tv set. You will receive movies in the same way. Maybe there will be no difference between games and movies anymore and your controller becomes your remote

[Cybergoth]

Niemand weiss was die Zukunft bringt...

[Artlover]

Of course, the logical path would be to flash cards.

Why flash? No need for it. Waste of technology and excessive cost relative to what is needed.

 

Except the one huge problem would be that they would be easy to copy.

So are discs and cartridges. At best, all you can do is stop the noobs and casual pirates, and that can be easily done using a custom/non standard pinout on the device so it wouldn't be read/write compatable with any PC accessable devices or blank media without modification.

 

And the other problem is that it's not exactly the most reliable storage medium.

All the more reason you use masked rom technology.

 

I'd expect the next logical step would be to BluRay. 50 gig or whatever on a disc.

Since BluRay is one of the current already in use formats, I think it's also one to consider being replaced by future generations. Besides, at 50 gigs, it's still smaller then the larger USB memory sticks. Not to mention, no one is even using the full capacity of the media that exists now. I dont see capacity as being an issue to any future changes in media format and it mostly being more about easy of use, reliability, cost, practicality and security.

 

Honestly, optical media is starting to show it's age and limitations. The patch work efforts on expanding it are a stop gap measure. Sony & Toshiba have talked about multi layer discs. Like 3 and 4 of them per side. Wow, so you mean like one tiny scratch will render 10's of gigs of data useless now. It borders on stupidity and desperation to do anything other then just make something completely new out of the box with no predermined conditions. Biggest fault right now is trying to shoehorn capacity into an existing form-factor. That and the inherent flaws of how media is produced with variations and different requirements for how they need to be specificly handled, and how drives are designed to see this that creates a big heaping pile of incompatabilty between drives and media of the same type that has plagued us since the CD era. - I think we're in the final years of optical media as we know it today.

[Artlover]

I think they are conditioning us to get used to digital downloads now.

10 years from now, things like TVs and videogame systems will wirelessly connect to some sort of "consumer net" where yes, you will buy your videogames, movies, etc... Pack-rats who waste valuable shelf space on 100's (1000's) of old games we rarely play anyways are a dying breed.

But you forget, future collectors will be using future technologies.

 

Its likes helping a friend who is a music collector move 30 years ago vs 5 years ago. Ten boxes of LP's vs one box of CD's.

 

If future games came out on lets say SD Rom cards, 1000's could fit in a shoebox.

[iwan-iwanowitsch-goratschin]

Niemand weiss was die Zukunft bringt...

 

Oh wie gut das niemand weiss, was Cybergoth schrieb für ein Sch.....

[Ryanw]

I really don't want to think of that future, but at least I wouldn't have to deal with nosy Gamestop employees

[AtticGamer]

No, disc-based consoles will continue to exist unless flash media does become inexpensive enough, then flash cartridges could become available and it will be a 360 degree (with improvement) to the old days.

 

For now, Blu-Ray will do and possibly HVD in the future.

 

What I can see is CF sized carts being used for portable consoles like the PSP. It's sufficient and cheap and has faster loading times. It's only a matter of preventing piracy.

Edited November 28, 2008 by AtticGamer

[Chickybaby]

I think before disc based systems are replaced the type of disc/format is going to be updated a couple times. For movies I can see more and more "BluRay exclusive" titles coming out to try and push that. DVD's are becoming darn cheap. Walmart had a bunch on sale for $2 today. What incentive is there for people to upgrade especially with the economy right now? Bean's Daddy took a seasonal job there and people were lined up by 11PM for 5AM specials. He stayed and picked up a Blu Ray player for my Dad for $128. Dad doesn't have an HD TV yet but those have been coming down in price a lot faster. You won't see me near a store today and I'll order takeout before I venture on the roads this weekend if I can help it.

 

I absolutely can see some systems using mostly if not all digital, but I still think there's going to be something tangible for us oddballs. I didn't want to say old heads because well, I don't want to be old, lol.

Now they are gearing cart based systems for kids as young as 3 via the LeapFrog and other similar series. I know Bean will be able to switch carts out by 2 and play them since she already likes putting them in and taking them out. There's also waterproof kids cameras and portable DVD players that can be dropped and beaten up from Fisher Price. I actually would like to pick up a DVd player for Bean since she likes watching movies and can use a TV remote already. Our kids are definitely going to be the I would almost say first big "Tech Generation".

I can't wait till she gets old enough to bring friends over and I hopefully will still have a working 8 track player. You are darn right I will be playing atari while listening to stuff on my player! What the heck, I'll wave my cane around and cuss at the "meddling kids" too while I'm at it. Talk about embarrasing.

 

I also remember when there were discussions and even quite a few arguments on here about many of us saying there will be downloads and upgrades within games that are going to cost money in addition to paying for a subscription to play online. Now it's becoming pretty common. And of course the brutal HD DVD vs Blu Ray ones and who would "win". The question for me though is how much more can the internet support going at this rate and how high tech are the computers going to have to be to even play the games? Eventually (I think) at least visually with graphics the limits will be reached probably much sooner then later because you can only do so much with what's out there now.

So, it is a really good question. There could be more "Virtual Reality" stuff especially with the interactive cams with the systems. Hmm, Instead fo little charecters you'll probably be able to see the person you're playing against or with on the screen? There are cams around the world you can watch with my favorite being on National Geographic where you can do everything from see an animal preserve in Botswana (my very fav) to viewing varioous cams on animals themselves. I know the Dreamcast had the fishing controller that was motion sensitive, the PS1 and Dreamcast both had DDR type stuff, but Was the Eye toy the first cam?

 

Yeah, what's next?

[crunchysuperman]

At least in North America, there's no way games could go totally to online delivery, not without a massive change in our infrastructure. There wont be anywhere even close to that amount of bandwidth available in the foreseeable future. Optical drives will be with us for a while yet.

[Gregory DG]

Yes, CDs and DVDs will be a thing of the past soon. The manufacturers desperately want to go this way (they'll make so much more money), so like it or not, it's coming. And once it's in place, you'll never want to go back. Just like with downloadable Xbox, Wii, or PS3 games. Just select your game from the comfort of your house and hit download. That's much easier than driving to the store, fighting the crowds, waiting for someone to open a glass case (darn you Wal-Mart!!), waiting in line, avoiding crazies in the parking lot, etc. And I think most people will take the path of least resistance.

 

Now the three big hurdles I hear about are 1. Hard drive space, 2. Download speeds, and 3. People's mindset.

 

1. Hard drive space. Gimme a break. It's cheap. Very. I hope that future game consoles will have an easy way to add a 2nd drive though. One that can be taken with you to the next console too. And flash memory is getting cheaper by the minute. Imagine a little 100 TB flash drive with all your games on it!

 

2. Download speeds are more than adequate. I've downloaded a 500 meg file on my PC in a few minutes with a typical broadband connection. Now if the game companies are smart, they will allow the player to start the game before it finishes downloading. Kinda like YouTube.

 

3. People's mindeset won't be all that hard to change. Once they see how easy it is and how much less clutter they'll have around the house, the average consumer will be all over it. There'll be holdouts of course, but I don't see too many new vinyl records these days either.

 

Like it or not, it's coming. And fast.

[figgler]

Like it or not, it's coming. And fast.

 

It's coming but not that fast. Digital music has been all the rage for years, but they're still making CDs. Hell, they still make record albums.

[Cybergoth]

There'll be holdouts of course, but I don't see too many new vinyl records these days either.

 

You're just looking in the wrong places, you can get almost everything still on vinyl.

Right now Amazon has 220,827 items in the category Music › Vinyl › Vinyl Album

[ls650]

Eventually yes, but it will be at least a couple more console generations. There are still a fair number of people who aren't online or don't have highspeed.

[Gregory DG]

There'll be holdouts of course, but I don't see too many new vinyl records these days either.

 

You're just looking in the wrong places, you can get almost everything still on vinyl.

Right now Amazon has 220,827 items in the category Music › Vinyl › Vinyl Album

There's only a niche market thesedays for that format and the fact that Amazon has vinyl records doesn't nullify my argument that old formats eventually wane in popularity to the point of virtual obscurity. The same thing will happen to CDs and DVDs, not because you want it die, but because the manufacturers do.

 

I mean, look at it from their POV and everything they have to do to get the product into your hands. They have to burn the DVDs with expensive equipment, package the product with environmentally unfriendly materials (drawing the ire from environmentalist groups), the ship the product to a holding warehouse, sell the product to retailers for much less than retail. And to top of it off, their DVD could end up being sold as used "robbing" them of a "new" sale!

 

Digital distribution eliminates pretty much all of that hassle for them. They don't have anything to manufacture or ship. They can sell the product themselves for full price instead of wholesale to Wal-Mart. And like we've seen with Steem, there's no resale afterwards! The consumer buys it and is stuck with it for life!

 

So, as I said, like it or not, it is coming. In fact, it's already here.

Edited November 28, 2008 by Gregory DG

[Artlover]

They have to burn the DVDs with expensive equipment

For the record, most commercialy produced CD's and DVD's are pressed, not burned. It's not too far removed from how vinyl records are produced.

 

It's also quick and cheap. CD's and DVD's cost pennies to mass produce. Cheaper then anything else like Vinyl, LD's, Cassettes, Video Tape, Floppies.

 

And like we've seen with Steem, there's no resale afterwards!

Which is a BAD thing for the consumer. Still have yet to figure out why software companies think they are special and alone in the world to approach the concept of product ownership in the mannor they do.

 

The consumer buys it and is stuck with it for life!

Exactly, "stuck with". You forgot to mention "at the mercy of". Steem might have customers, but there also have a large share of lost customers and never will be customers because of their practicies. So the question becomes is there enough suckers in the world willing to keep them afloat in the long term. Unfortunatly, probably.

[keilbaca]

Eventually, I say when they're able to get high speed net to *everywhere*, including the boon docks that we have here in PA that are stuck with dialup, that this will happen. I'd say 15 years.

 

I do have to say though, I love the fact that no matter where I am at, all I have to do is download and install Steam, and I can download all the games that I purchased. VERY nice for those system reloads. Just download steam, right click on said games, click install. No need to change discs, or worry about keys.

[iswitt]

I would very much NOT like for this to happen. I like being able to have somewhat of a say in the price of a game. The used game market for new games would no longer exist (developers wouldn't complain though) and forget trading or borrowing games with friends! Another thing that bothers me is this: Let's say you have a bunch of games downloaded and then your console fries or gets the next generation's version of RRoD, whatever that may be. What are you going to do then? Though you should be able to get your games back on a replacement console without more charges, you still have to download everything again unless the storage is external, but you just need to hope that your storage unit isn't connected when it craps out.

 

Bottom line: This would suck.

[Lord Helmet]

Physical media distribution is definitely going away at some point. Its cheaper and more feasible for companies do distribute games in a digital form. Personally I would love everything to be digital, as long as the developer doesn't have a kill switch. I don't care about a box or a DVD, but I want the game to be MINE.

[godslabrat]

I would very much NOT like for this to happen. I like being able to have somewhat of a say in the price of a game. The used game market for new games would no longer exist (developers wouldn't complain though) and forget trading or borrowing games with friends! Another thing that bothers me is this: Let's say you have a bunch of games downloaded and then your console fries or gets the next generation's version of RRoD, whatever that may be. What are you going to do then? Though you should be able to get your games back on a replacement console without more charges, you still have to download everything again unless the storage is external, but you just need to hope that your storage unit isn't connected when it craps out.

 

Bottom line: This would suck.

 

You can have my physical games... when you pry them from my cold, dead fingers.