Will History Repeat Itself?

[VectorGamer]

Will there be another Great Video Game crash?

 

Secondly, will there ever be a return to classic game programming e.g. maze games, slide-n-shoots? (Yeah I know, wishful thinking!)

 

Lastly, the return of the arcade, or is it gone the way of the drive-in movie theaters?

[danwinslow]

Soon they will be directly implanted in your head. I'm not kidding; I really think that's the way its going. The arcade, and the movie theatre itself, and tv, and books, and EVEN THE INETRWEBZ will be contained in a small pod implanted in your head behind your left ear, running off of your blood sugar and interfaced directly into your brain via nanowire biologically guided neural interconnects directly on the surface of the brain. The pod will be implanted in early youth, as it needs time to hook up to your neurons and you need time to adapt to interpreting and controlling the signals. It will feel like an extra sense, or maybe a new kind of limb or hand...nobody is really sure what the user will experience. They have already shown that the brain has enough plasticity to adapt to a 'third arm' in experiments involving brain-guided prosthetics.

 

But, so um, yeah I think there will be another video game crash, but not for the same reasons. It will be because the whole concept ( of an external console ) is now useless.

Edited April 21, 2009 by danwinslow

[Pixelboy]

Will there be another Great Video Game crash?

Probably, but it probably won't happen the same way it did back in 83/84, and it won't happen for the same reasons either.

 

Secondly, will there ever be a return to classic game programming e.g. maze games, slide-n-shoots? (Yeah I know, wishful thinking!)

There's already been a return of sorts, on cell phones and other mobile devices. But even those mediums are slowly moving up to 3D, so 2D classic-style games are only a phase. Also, the world has changed a lot since the eighties. Now with the internet and everything attached to it, anybody can program a game and let everyone else try it, most of the time for free. Some of these new games can be put under the "classic" genre, and a number of them are genuinely original, but they are condemned to remaining freeware because of distribution/marketing/legal hurdles.

 

Lastly, the return of the arcade, or is it gone the way of the drive-in movie theaters?

The next time arcades become popular in shopping malls, they won't be called arcades. They'll be called holodecks.

[Video]

Yes, there will be another video game crash. I think pretty soon too (within the next 10 years or so) but, it won't do nearly what the 80's crash did. I mean, in the 80's, video games literrally dissappeared. I mean, gone, the only places that had them were people blowing them out the door for <$1 But now, Video games are huge, bigger than the music and movie industry combined . So, even if it crashes, it won't go away, but we provavly would see a huge swing in what games are popular.

 

2, I think those types of games never really dissappeared, you see some new ones on the net all the time, mostly little nobody games for PC for free, or on flash or something. As for on consoles, with the new Virtual Media catching on so well, it might happen. We'll never see them pressed to disc or anything (unless someone does a compilation, like XBLA packin for the XB Arcade) Because, well, nobody will pay the $60 that the game companies want their games to sell for. To bad to, I think there's a really big market for cheap games out there, if they would just release some ultra budget disc games for like $5-$10 range or something. After all, even poor people pick these systems up, it's the loads of games that kill you, not the initial system cost (unless your out of a job like I was on X-boxes release)

 

3Arcades...eh. Personally, I never really cared for them. I would play one or two systems like crack (like Ms Pac-man, or Primal Rage at walmart) but over all, the arcade was where I went to hang out wit friends. I think befor home consoles took off, that's really what arcades were. Hangout spots. And most modern day hangout spots today do have arcade machines, mostly older stuff, but hey, while the hangout will always be around, dedicated arcades I Believe are gone. Well, except there was this one place, Main Games, that opened a few years ago. Instead of an arcadee in the traditional scense, it was more a cyber cafe, except instead of computers, it was X-boxes. Maybe thise will catch on? It unfo9rtunately closed, but I told the dude when he opened, that it owuld take a minimum of a year befor he would even be able to find out if it would catch on, but he wouldn't even give it that one year. I still want to try though.

[BassGuitari]

Will there be another Great Video Game crash?

 

Secondly, will there ever be a return to classic game programming e.g. maze games, slide-n-shoots? (Yeah I know, wishful thinking!)

 

Lastly, the return of the arcade, or is it gone the way of the drive-in movie theaters?

 

1. Who cares? I haven't paid attention to the current generation of games/consoles since PS1/N64. And I'm not seeing much now that's likely to change that. And if there is, it means I'll be able to snag a PS3 and Resident Evil 5 on the cheap. And maybe game designers will be forced to start being creative again, instead of making the same games over and over. So, I see no negatives to another crash (which I don't think will happen, FWIW): positives at best, or indifference at worst.

 

2. No. I'd dig it, but no.

 

3. Dead as a dodo, and will only get deader.

[Emehr]

What video game crash?

[godslabrat]

I realize this is not a popular opinion, but I personally think that there are too many players in the market, and we're due for a little shake-up. Before the success of the first Xbox, the conventional wisdom was that the market wasn't big enough to support three major consoles. Even though Microsoft is now in their second round, I have yet to really accept a "three console system" as being viable. Microsoft only survived their first generation by bleeding massive losses, and Sony had to give up their ground in the video game realm to gain a long-term foothold in HD home video. In both the last two generations, we've had one competitor pouring money into an otherwise losing console.'

 

That's not real competition. That doesn't prove the market can support two systems, it shows that gamers make decent testing grounds for future products. If Microsoft didn't have mountains of cash, the Xbox would have died in its second year. If Sony hadn't needed to win the HD format war, the PS3 would have been released earlier and cheaper.

 

Having three players has created a glut of redunancy. We get tons of ported titles that are all but identical to each other. The money spent on making three versions of Rock Band could theoretically have been better spent making Rock Band, plus other worthwhile projects. I really do think the industry could grow with the loss of one big player.

[VectorGamer]

It was said that one of major contributors to the crash of 84 was that a lot of releases were getting a "been there, done that" response from gamers. Is there any reason to believe that this will not happen again? Is there much of an improvement in gameplay (besides updated rosters) between e.g Madden '08 and Madden '09? Is there a plethora of cookie-cutter RPGs being released for the latest systems?

 

Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo have lots of cash, but are there any software companies out there that would not be able to survive a "correction" in the video game industry? This would undoubtedly be impossible to answer not knowing the magnitude of a correction. I would think that there would be some M&As going on if that situation presented itself.

 

I agree that the dedicated arcade will never return. You would have to be selling another product like a Chuck E Cheese, Dave and Busters or dare I say a bowling alley to dedicate the space to the stuff.

 

I also believe that the dedicated Internet Cafe will soon be a thing of the past. I just can't see a use for supplying Internet and danishes.

[16-bit]

1. No. I personally don't understand all the paranoia lately about one either. The market seems to be doing fine. If anything it might even go up. When there's a bad economy, entertainment sources make money usually (movies,comic books, etc.). I don't even see a problem in the future for the big 3 companies either. Unless Sony can't pay back the loans they took out for PS3, Microsoft runs out of money...or Nintendo Wii's are found to cause cancer.

 

2. That would be nice.

 

3. Seems that way, unfortunately. There's some spots you can find here and there that have good arcades in them, but it's at "fun center" type places, not dedicated arcades. Most D&B's really don't have the greatest arcades in them either.

[darthkur]

Soon they will be directly implanted in your head. I'm not kidding; I really think that's the way its going. The arcade, and the movie theatre itself, and tv, and books, and EVEN THE INETRWEBZ will be contained in a small pod implanted in your head behind your left ear, running off of your blood sugar and interfaced directly into your brain via nanowire biologically guided neural interconnects directly on the surface of the brain. The pod will be implanted in early youth, as it needs time to hook up to your neurons and you need time to adapt to interpreting and controlling the signals. It will feel like an extra sense, or maybe a new kind of limb or hand...nobody is really sure what the user will experience. They have already shown that the brain has enough plasticity to adapt to a 'third arm' in experiments involving brain-guided prosthetics.

 

But, so um, yeah I think there will be another video game crash, but not for the same reasons. It will be because the whole concept ( of an external console ) is now useless.

 

 

 

Yes, Microsoft is very much looking forward to this. We will all be assimilated. Resistance is futile.

[AtticGamer]

Short answers:

1. No.

2. Yes.

3. See 1.

 

Longer answers:

1. Again, the crash only happened in the USA and in the console market and it is too big for a crash now, specially with such variety of systems offering different things to different targets so everything collapsing at once is unlikely. Also, the industry has matured.

 

2. They are still made, for online stores and as flash games.

 

3. Nooooooooooooo.

[+Random Terrain]

There will be arcades if they can give us what we can't have at home. More than an interactive motion simulator that just jerks you around, you'll get into a big ball-shaped thing, strap in and feel like you're really flying a space ship or driving a car. For example, if your vehicle spins around, you'll actually spin around and you'll have a full hemispherical view of the game world where you can see all around you. Arcades will need to be like mini-amusement parks if they want to keep people coming in.

[Math You]

The global recession could have a big impact on video game sales. People can't afford to spend £40/$50 on a game when they're struggling to pay the bills.

[carmel_andrews]

When you say 'history repeating itself' does that mean that some kind soul (with megabucks) will buy ATARI and bring it back into an industry it knew well (hardware NOT software)

[VectorGamer]

There will be arcades if they can give us what we can't have at home. More than an interactive motion simulator that just jerks you around, you'll get into a big ball-shaped thing, strap in and feel like you're really flying a space ship or driving a car. For example, if your vehicle spins around, you'll actually spin around and you'll have a full hemispherical view of the game world where you can see all around you. Arcades will need to be like mini-amusement parks if they want to keep people coming in.

 

Although the vision I have of the spinning vehicle is humorous, you are exactly right. On top of that it kills the idea of charging a quarter regardless of the fact that nobody charges a quarter anymore.

[VectorGamer]

The global recession could have a big impact on video game sales. People can't afford to spend £40/$50 on a game when they're struggling to pay the bills.

 

This is my personal preference, but owning a console no later than the Playstation allows me to purchase games for no more than $5 on average. I have no desire to purchase any of the latest systems. Most of them seem to be RPGs which I never had an interest in. I cannot see myself doing repeat plays on these systems.

[Mirage]

That's about the time I stopped playing games in arcades -- when most of them were suddenly 50 cents or more to play.

 

1) I don't think there will be another crash per-se, but rather more mild ups-and-downs, with interest waning somewhat (outside the hardcore) in between innovations. Advances in technology and in gameplay innovation will keep things more-or-less moving. It's a more mature market than it was in the '80s when no one really knew how to do it and were mostly just flailing in the dark.

 

2) Not sure that ever went away. It's just in different forms now with "better" graphics.

 

3) Arcades are gone. At least the way we knew them. Maybe once VR becomes better and more appealing to a mass audience, and is cheap enough to make like arcade machines, but still too expensive for homes, that may take off for awhile, but I don't think even that will last long. Eventually everyone will have VR/Holodeck type devices at home (or implanted as someone else said), again negating the need to have standalone machines available in public places. And, VR-arcades would be totally different, wouldn't they? Doesn't seem like they'd have the same level of interaction (except virtual) as classic arcades did. Yeah, I think arcades are dead, and those of us who remember them from the Golden Age share that unique experience.

[VectorGamer]

When you say 'history repeating itself' does that mean that some kind soul (with megabucks) will buy ATARI and bring it back into an industry it knew well (hardware NOT software)

 

That would be sweet if the goal of the hardware was to create a large number of arcade ports up to 1984, that are true to the real thing and is backward compatible with the 2600 and 7800 carts. Add to that updating earlier titles from the 2600, 5200 and 7800 library that could use a boost in graphics and enhanced gameplay.

 

I think this would be more suitable for hobbyists like the ones found here on AtariAge. If I had the know-how, this would be something I personally would undertake.

[VectorGamer]

<<<SNiP>>>

2) Not sure that ever went away. It's just in different forms now with "better" graphics.

 

My question was vague - more in the sense of another "Pac-Man Fever" sweeping the nation and gamers preferring these more simplistic games over the graphically superior counterparts (for whatever reason - economics or "been there, done that").

 

Wouldn't it be cool - maybe for just a year and some people taking the risk and opening arcades as we used to know them?

 

Maybe in higher place, eh?

[Mirage]

<<<SNiP>>>

2) Not sure that ever went away. It's just in different forms now with "better" graphics.

 

My question was vague - more in the sense of another "Pac-Man Fever" sweeping the nation and gamers preferring these more simplistic games over the graphically superior counterparts (for whatever reason - economics or "been there, done that").

 

Wouldn't it be cool - maybe for just a year and some people taking the risk and opening arcades as we used to know them?

 

Maybe in higher place, eh?

 

Gotcha... I don't know. The interest in retro-gaming has come and gone over the years, but never completely gone away. I think it's kinda like a rubber band... you snap it hard, and the first big snap is a big one, but then it sort of reverberates more slowly for quite awhile until it stops completely. I think we're somewhere in the slower reverberation stage, but the big snap is long gone.

 

You can still go to arcades, similar to the way they used to be. They're around, just not "quite" the same, and fewer and farther between. So, people are still taking the risk to an extent. One I've been to myself is Flipper McCoy's in Virginia Beach. There's others though, that have lots of Golden Age machines in more-or-less working condition.

[cimerians]

No, yes and no.

 

No there wont be a crash since Microsoft\Sony\Nintendo isn't Atari\Mattel\Coleco.

 

 

Nintendo has made sure everyone is still turning on a game machine...shovelware aside.

 

Computer games were being played a lot during the crash so gaming didnt disappear in the mid 80's. We sinply played on Atari XL's or Commodore 64's.

Who cared about the 2600 or any other console when we could game with "64K"??

 

 

As far as arcades go, I've learned to never say never but I cant ever see it happen again as long as these console's (and PC's) we have stay this powerful (and affordable).

[VectorGamer]

When I bought my arcade cabinet from TNT Amusements, the owner there said that arcades are dead. "A quarter is still what it was 30 years ago - a lousy quarter." He went on to say that the only arcades that will be around are ones that are already around and own the building.

 

I'll be hitting two arcades this summer - the one at Hersheypark and the one on the boardwalk in Ocean City, MD. I'll jot down a list of classic games that may still be in service at the respective arcade. At one time there were at least two arcades on the boardwalk at Ocean City and I don't recall if there is one at the Jolly Roger out there but I will check on our obligatory annual visit for the kids.

 

Also, I will be at the TMG expo soon and I'll grab some photos. There's a classic arcade about ten minutes away that I'm going to visit in between our early morning extravaganza and the Warlords Tournament.

[Mirage]

When I bought my arcade cabinet from TNT Amusements, the owner there said that arcades are dead. "A quarter is still what it was 30 years ago - a lousy quarter." He went on to say that the only arcades that will be around are ones that are already around and own the building.

 

I'll be hitting two arcades this summer - the one at Hersheypark and the one on the boardwalk in Ocean City, MD. I'll jot down a list of classic games that may still be in service at the respective arcade. At one time there were at least two arcades on the boardwalk at Ocean City and I don't recall if there is one at the Jolly Roger out there but I will check on our obligatory annual visit for the kids.

 

Also, I will be at the TMG expo soon and I'll grab some photos. There's a classic arcade about ten minutes away that I'm going to visit in between our early morning extravaganza and the Warlords Tournament.

 

Sounds like a fun trip! I meant to go out that way when I lived on the East coast but never made it that far north. There's a website or two where you can check out or enter in machine information about various arcades. Maybe check those out before you go. No guarantees how up-to-date they are at least.

[VectorGamer]

Here's some recent articles that gives us an idea on the state of the Big 3 (key points bolded for "skimability"):

 

Game Group Rises After Sales Beat Forecasts on Wii (Update2)

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By David Altaner

 

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Game Group Plc, the U.K.’s largest electronic-games retailer, rose the most in five months in London trading after games such as “Mario Kart Wii” helped cushion a sales decline and beat company forecasts.

 

Game Group gained 13 percent. Sales at stores open at least a year dropped 6.3 percent in the 11 weeks ended April 18, “ahead of expectations,” the Basingstoke, U.K.-based company said in a Regulatory News Service statement today. Total revenue increased 1 percent in the same period.

 

Demand for Nintendo Co.’s Wii, Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox has helped Game Group’s sales even in the U.K. recession. About 9 million systems sold in the U.K. over the past year, for a total of more than 22 million, the company said. Gross margin this fiscal year gained 1.5 percentage points as the larger number of consoles allowed it to sell more higher-profit software titles.

 

“The unprecedented range of products has broadened the demographic appeal of gaming, attracting new customers from all generations,” Chief Executive Officer Lisa Morgan told reporters in a conference call. The company is “confident” of the outlook for the year ended Jan. 31, 2010, she said.

 

The decline in same-store sales in the 11 weeks compares with an 18 percent gain for the same period a year earlier. Prior to today, Mike Hickey, a Janco Partners analyst, had been predicting a 10 percent decrease for the first half.

Profit Increase

 

Game gained 21 pence to 185 pence in London. The stock has advanced 46 percent this year, giving the company a market value of 640.7 million pounds ($929 million).

 

Full-year profit rose 81 percent, Game Group said. Net income was 85.4 million pounds in the 53 weeks ended Jan. 31, from 47.2 million pounds a year earlier. Sales gained 32 percent to 1.97 billion pounds.

 

Morgan said the company will add 70 or 80 new stores in this fiscal year, mostly in Australia and Spain and Portugal. The company added a net 159 outlets last year, for a total of 1,342, including franchises.

 

For the full year, U.K. and Irish same-store sales gained 10.7 percent. Overseas, where the company generates about 30 percent of its revenue, such sales gained 4.6 percent.

 

Game Group is trying to sell more used product to attract cash-strapped customers, Morgan said. Sales of used games rose 37 percent to 353 million pounds, helping the company increase profit margin, Finance Director David Thomas said in the call. Gross margin on pre-owned games is 39 percent, compared with 22 percent for new games and machines, the company said.

 

The full-year dividend was raised 25 percent to 5.5 pence.

 

David Stoddart, an analyst with Altium Securities, raised his recommendation to “buy” from “hold,” citing the margin gains.

 

“Zavvi and Woolies aren’t there; that’s helped them,” he said in a telephone call, citing the collapse of Woolworths Group Plc and Zavvi Retail Ltd.

[VectorGamer]

Nintendo’s March U.S. Wii Sales Drop, Xbox 360 Gains (Update1)

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By Adam Satariano

 

 

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. sales of Nintendo Co.’s Wii video-game console fell 17 percent in March, the first monthly drop since January 2008, according to researcher NPD Group Inc.

 

Sales of the world’s most popular console fell to 601,000 players from 721,000 a year earlier, Port Washington, New York- based NPD Group said today in an e-mailed statement. Stores sold 330,000 of Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 players, a 26 percent gain, and 218,000 of Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 3, a 15 percent drop. U.S. industry sales slid 17 percent to $1.43 billion.

 

Nintendo has sold 19.6 million Wii consoles in the U.S. since the player was introduced in November 2006. The popularity has led game developers including Electronic Arts Inc. to create exclusive titles for the system. Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime said March sales suffered in the absence of a top release like last year’s “Super Smash Brothers: Brawl.”

 

“Our launch schedules are more spread out so we’re going to have these tough comparisons month to month,” Fils-Aime said in an interview. “But if you look at the overall trend of our business it continues to be very healthy.”

 

Wii sales in Japan trailed Sony’s PlayStation 3 in the five weeks ended March 29, Tokyo-based research firm Enterbrain said on April 7. The March decline in the U.S. was the first since a supply shortage crimped sales in January 2008.

 

Nintendo gained 1.6 percent to 28,040 yen in Tokyo trading today. The shares have fallen 46 percent in the past year.

 

Industrywide, game software sales in March totaled $792.8 million, a 17 percent drop, according to NPD. Hardware sales declined 18 percent to $455.6 million.

 

Later Easter

 

The decline reflected this year’s later Easter, which delayed some sales that would have occurred in March, and Nintendo’s gains from “Super Smash Bros.” last year, NPD analyst Anita Frazier said in a statement.

 

“You might not think that Easter is that big of a gift- giving holiday, but our consumer data shows that 8 percent of industry unit sales were purchased for the Easter occasion in March 2008,” Frazier said.

 

Nintendo sold 563,000 of its DS handheld players in the U.S. in March, down 19 percent from a year earlier. Fils-Aime said purchases will increase following the April 4 introduction of a new version of the system, the DSi. That player has already sold 435,000 units in the U.S., he said.

 

Consumers bought 168,000 of Sony’s PSP handheld device.

 

Nintendo had four of the top 10 selling titles during the month, including No. 2 ranked “Pokemon Platinum,” with sales of 805,000, and “Wii Fit,” third with sales of 540,000.

 

The top-selling game in March was “Resident Evil 5.”

 

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net

 

Last Updated: April 16, 2009 19:18 EDT