My prediction for where collecting will be in 2020

[Ransom]

There will be kids who are curious and look back on the old stuff as long as it's around in some form, and some of them will have fun playing the better games. But they'll be a tiny minority, similar to the students of film who go to Buster Keaton film festivals. Most people couldn't name a Buster Keaton movie, but he was a big draw in his day, and did some excellent work. If you add up the output of the film industry over its life, and if you were to make all of it available all the time, there would be enough there to watch for several lifetimes. But most of it is already lost, rotted away in film vaults or lost in fires. What's left is slowly slipping away as well. I wonder about the long-term fate of, for example, W.C. Fields and Marx Brothers movies in a world where they're not played on Sunday mornings on the independent channels like they were when I was a kid. Heck, I haven't even seen an Our Gang film in the listings in many, many years. You can get a lot of this stuff on DVD because there are enough of us who are alive who remember them. But what will the market be for these films in a few decades?

 

Novels have received the same treatment, with a minority of the historic output being published in any form at present. I think it's reasonable to say that the videogame world will be the same.

 

You know what doesn't get that treatment, though? Play-Doh and the other classic kids' toys like Slinkys. They're always available at your local drugstore, and they're cheap. Mom or Dad sees them, remembers how much fun they had with them as kids, and buys them for their kids. The kids grow up, and the cycle repeats.

 

Maybe the (slim) hope of the classic video game world rests on Jakks 10-in-1 devices...

[accousticguitar]

I have a "gaming night" every now and again for the youngsters in our church and they have absolutely no interest in playing my retro game systems.

I've had a tournament at school the last 2 years. The first one was Warlords and it was a big success. The last was Chase It and it also was a big success. The boys enjoy competing against one another to find who is the video game champion. The girls don't enjoy it quite as much. They only have 2 choices though; they either play or they watch.

[Atarian7]

It is almost 2020 so I dug up this old thread.  AtariAge is nowhere near 100,000 members.  I don't know about the cartridge prices.   

 

 

[VectorGamer]

Topic was started a couple of years after the King of Kong was released and we saw a renewed interest in golden age arcade and console gaming. I think the interest has peaked, we are already on the decline and only the hardest of core will remain while picking up a few newbies here and there. AtariAge membership is at 51,800+ but I suspect more than half of those accounts are inactive. I'll loosely define inactive as in hasn't logged in in over a year.

 

Haven't bought a cartridge in years. I suspect most loose Atari black label carts still go between 50 cents and a dollar.

[Mikebloke]

I would argue that cheap carts is still fairly cheap, I find the only real way of buying them online is to bulk buy, save on postage. 

 

However, I think generally we are starting to see a bit of "wait how much do you want for something I paid 50p for???" but its on select titles. 

 

Scavenging carts for multicarts, romcarts is great and all, but eventually we will run out! 

 

There is some casual youth interest in older consoles, but you do find it stops (predictably) at the NES. I've been in contact with a number of 1292 collectors recently, but I think that is more rarity, demand is low but so is supply. Having most of the commons for 2600 now, I don't hunt for new ones often. I've slowed down for the time being, and a Retron 77 and unocart does the rest. 

[buick]

Always funny to look back at old predictions and see how wrong they are, lol.

 

Considering how even desirable games like classic Activision and Atari titles (such as Pitfall or Missile Command) can still be easily obtained for well under $5, if you know where to look, I'm not sure Atari values will ever reach the same heights that old Nintendo titles do. At my local game stores even the most common Mario/Duck Hunt cartridges are priced at 5-10 bucks while much more desirable games for the Atari struggle to beat that.

 

Not that I'm complaining. I can get 8-10 Atari games for the price of even a semi-desirable NES game.

[Magmavision2000]

Two days left in the 2010s. Most common Atari games are $5.00 and atariage has 51k members. The only thing that was right was an Atari game going for 10 grand.

[+Random Terrain]

7 minutes ago, buick said:

Always funny to look back at old predictions and see how wrong they are, lol.

 

Homerwannabee was famous for being wrong about many things.

 

[+GoldLeader]

On 12/24/2009 at 9:03 AM, homerwannabee said:

OK, I will probably get flamed for this, but I honestly believe that we will look back around this time period vastly different animal. In 10 years if I am completely wrong I fully encourage someone to pull this thread from the doldrums have a very good laugh.

 

Here are the predictions.

 

1. AtariAge will have over 100,000 members. Based on how membership has grown over the years I do not expect this to stop.

 

2. Having Space Invaders, Combat, Pac-Man, Pitfall, Donkey Kong in any condition will be be bragged about. Instead of posts like we have now of how someone is trying to rip people off by charging $10, there will be posts about how they got this great deal of only paying $10 for a Combat cart.

 

3. Prices for all games in general will be worth 10 times as much as they are now. We will not only have an Atari 2600 game go for $10,000 in the next decade, we will have an Atari 2600 game go for over $100,000 in the next decade.

 

One huge reason for believing this. I decided to test the waters, and sell video games at the swap meet last Saturday. I was shocked at the reaction I had compared to just 2 or 3 years ago when I last sold at the swap meet. I had 4 different things out for sale. Comic Books, Video Games, Baseball Cards, and records. I had some tarnished Beatles records I was selling, Some old Baseball Cards from the early 70's I was selling, and some comics from the late 60's early 70's. Now as far as selling went. I only sold $5 worth of Atari 2600 games. a $3 Donkey Kong cart, and an Asteroids cart for $2 to someone who was about 20 who did not even have a system for the game, but had a friend with a broken system. But this was far from besides my main experience. It was the reaction of the people passing by. While I did not sell much, the thing that was commented on the most BY FAR was my Atari 2600 stuff. I had plenty of Oh Wow Atari 2600 carts! The comics no one said anything about, the cards was the same way, but the nostalgic button was huge for this system. Even more than the NES games I had out there. In fact there where a few that implied that they may of bought the games if I had an Atari 2600 system to go along with the games. In fact one seemed angry that I did not have the system to go along with the games. So after that experience, I firmly concluded that the Atari 2600 will one day truly shine again brighter than the noon day sun. Also, as an added note, on Ebay, I have seen some jaw dropping prices for just the system with games this Christmas season including several Atari 2600 systems with just 50 or 60 games going for over $250.

 

Of course let the flamers flame. I stand strong in my belief that the Atari 2600 be a major collecting hobby in 10 years!

 

P.S. Merry Christmas!

 

Well,

 

1 out of 3 ain't bad.   ?

 

[jaybird3rd]

7 minutes ago, GoldLeader said:

1 out of 3 ain't bad.   ?

I'd say it's more like 0.33 out of 3.  The only part he got right was the $10K Atari game, and if memory serves, the only Atari game that fell into that price range was "Air Raid."

[+GoldLeader]

Just now, jaybird3rd said:

I'd say it's more like 0.33 out of 3.  The only part he got right was the $10K Atari game, and if memory serves, the only Atari game that fell into that price range was "Air Raid."

True!

 

I was being generous and giving,  IDK, Bonus points for trying or something...haha...Plus 1 out of 3 is kind of a saying, (like an inside joke) for me and some friends around here

[jaybird3rd]

Unfortunately, as others have already said, I think the peak interest in Atari 2600 games—and in pre-crash video games in general—is probably behind us.  Those who currently have the most mainstream influence on the perception of video game history, and thus on the priorities of video game collectors, tend to be younger people who came in during or after the NES.  This is a pet peeve of mine that I've complained about before, but their perspective is highly Nintendo-centric: to them, the NES is the be-all and end-all of classic video gaming, the first console that really "got it right."  With the exception of a few significant arcade games, everything before the NES is seen as a mere litany of early failed experiments and evolutionary dead-ends, only worth revisiting today for the purpose of considering the necessary historical mistakes which made the NES possible.

 

Needless to say, I don't agree with that view at all, but I'm well aware that I'm part of a small and shrinking minority.  Those of us who still have an appreciation for the pre-crash era of video games are mostly the ones who were there at the time to enjoy it, but compared to the general population, there aren't very many of us left.  I think the predictions of a continuously building level of interest in an era of gaming that is now forty years or more in the past were wildly optimistic.

[CapitanClassic]

3 hours ago, jaybird3rd said:

Those of us who still have an appreciation for the pre-crash era of video games are mostly the ones who were there to enjoy it at the time, but compared to thegeneral population, there aren't very many of us left.

This is basically the issue. Kids who where 5-10 when the NES came out are now 40-45 years old. Where as the Atari 2600 kids are now 50-55 years old. The sweet spot for nostalgia is probably 35-45, when most people are probably well into their careers and pulling lots of expendable cash.

 

The really pricey NES games are starting to take a nosedive in price, and are likely to keep dropping. Emulation and Flashcarts are making the need to own original copies of games less and less important.

 

in the next 10 years my guess is that PSX original and N64 titles will begin commanding premium prices. In 20 years when most of the digital kids who are not used to owning physical copies of games, but moved on to streaming digital content and playing Steam/Epic/iStore games, most used games will be very inexpensive.

[Mr SQL]

 

 

 

 

Brand recognition increases in the future after Atari is embued with Sang-froid

 

 

 

[adamchevy]

Unfortunately, as others have already said, I think the peak interest in Atari 2600 games—and pre-crash video games in general—is probably behind us.  Those who have the most mainstream influence on the perception of video game history, and thus on the priorities of video game collectors, tend to be younger people who came in during or after the NES.  This is a continual pet peeve of mine that I've complained about before, but their perspective is highly Nintendo-centric; to them, the NES was the be-all and end-all of classic video gaming, the first video game console that really "got it right."  With the exception of a few significant arcade games, everything before the NES is seen as merely a litany of early failed experiments and evolutionary dead-ends of the video game industry, only worth revisiting today for the purpose of considering the necessary historical mistakes which made the NES possible.
 
Needless to say, I don't agree with that view at all, but I'm well aware that I'm part of a small and shrinking minority.  Those of us who still have an appreciation for the pre-crash era of video games are mostly the ones who were there to enjoy it at the time, but compared to the general population, there aren't very many of us left.  I think the predictions of a continuously building level of interest in an era of gaming that is now forty years or more in the past were wildly optimistic.

I grew up with an NES as my first system. I’m 38 years old. I do remember playing a 2600 at my Uncles house when I was 5 or 6 years old.

My favorite console has been the 2600 since I found Atariage back in 2013. I listen to all Atari centric podcasts. Except for Retro Game club and the Retro hour. But they are definitely in that older age group.

I do feel more like a minority when it comes to retro gaming, but I also think it’s the best time to be in this minority for 2 reasons. The homebrews are better than ever, and the Hardware creation/modding scene is currently excellent. You have guys like double down and Edladdin, and others making great retro hardware. Tim worthingtons RgB mods, Sophia mods, all of the excellent stuff by candle like the incognito boards, Harmony carts, the Coleco Phoenix console, and many others I can’t remember.

I also am passing all of this on to my kids with much enthusiasm. I endeavor to help everyone I know remember the great Atari company by sporting Atari attire wherever I go. Most people look at me kind of strange, but occasionally someone tells me that it’s great.

[Magmavision2000]

6 minutes ago, adamchevy said:

I also am passing all of this on to my kids with much enthusiasm. I endeavor to help everyone I know remember the great Atari company by sporting Atari attire wherever I go. Most people look at me kind of strange, but occasionally someone tells me that it’s great.

You are the hero the world needs.

[Blazing Lazers]

4 hours ago, jaybird3rd said:

Unfortunately, as others have already said, I think the peak interest in Atari 2600 games—and pre-crash video games in general—is probably behind us.  Those who have the most mainstream influence on the perception of video game history, and thus on the priorities of video game collectors, tend to be younger people who came in during or after the NES.  This is a continual pet peeve of mine that I've complained about before, but their perspective is highly Nintendo-centric; to them, the NES was the be-all and end-all of classic video gaming, the first video game console that really "got it right."  With the exception of a few significant arcade games, everything before the NES is seen as merely a litany of early failed experiments and evolutionary dead-ends of the video game industry, only worth revisiting today for the purpose of considering the necessary historical mistakes which made the NES possible.

 

Needless to say, I don't agree with that view at all, but I'm well aware that I'm part of a small and shrinking minority.  Those of us who still have an appreciation for the pre-crash era of video games are mostly the ones who were there to enjoy it at the time, but compared to the general population, there aren't very many of us left.  I think the predictions of a continuously building level of interest in an era of gaming that is now forty years or more in the past were wildly optimistic.

Most of this I'd agree with, except to observe that prices for the very rarest titles on any pre-NES system will only continue to rise. The Odyssey 1 1973 releases and homebrews, the Democarts and later Zircon releases for Channel F, Studio II rarities, 2600 rarities, Vectrex 3D titles, the rarest Arcadia releases, etc- these have all gotten a lot tougher to find over this past decade, and the prices seem to keep escalating in actual open auctions. It seems to be a combination of longer-term collectors finally hoping to finish their sets and newer speculators mixing with the diminished supply. And I really can't help but think that this combination of factors is going to see quality complete copies of the above commanding over $10,000 by the time 2030 rolls around.

[+thanatos]

The pricey market for all generations seems to be about sealed games, not loose ones.

[adamchevy]

You are the hero the world needs.

I often feel like a Super Hero. I just need some spandex and a cape!

[Keatah]

10 years later.. Great to see emulation is being steadily refined and showing no signs of stopping. Emulation is even highly desirable through things like Retron77 and The64. People are clamoring for and pre-ordering those things like crazy because emulation appeals to newcomers and veterans alike!

 

Emulation killing off vintage consoles? Not too likely. But changing television standards will. RF/COMPOSITE -to- HDMI is just difficult enough that the casual/newcomer won't want to fuss with it. They'll want something that outputs HDMI directly. And emulation can do that perfectly and with plenty of adjustment options if desired.

Edited December 31, 2019 by Keatah

[Atari_Bill]

41 minutes ago, Blazing Lazers said:

Most of this I'd agree with, except to observe that prices for the very rarest titles on any pre-NES system will only continue to rise. The Odyssey 1 1973 releases and homebrews, the Democarts and later Zircon releases for Channel F, Studio II rarities, 2600 rarities, Vectrex 3D titles, the rarest Arcadia releases, etc- these have all gotten a lot tougher to find over this past decade, and the prices seem to keep escalating in actual open auctions. It seems to be a combination of longer-term collectors finally hoping to finish their sets and newer speculators mixing with the diminished supply. And I really can't help but think that this combination of factors is going to see quality complete copies of the above commanding over $10,000 by the time 2030 rolls around.

I’ve been saying for years that prices will drop off drastically as the population ages and moves on to the next gen of systems. I believe that to be happening now, but I will agree with you that the rarities mentioned above are holding value and even appreciating.  I really think that this is the more advanced collectors looking to finally complete collections. I still think as this generation dies off and collections get redistributed that even these will take a hit in value. I think even NES might be just starting to get past its prime. I just don’t see a game collection no matter how impressive ever being a good long term investment. 

[Keatah]

I personally don't get excited for any high-priced holy grail items anymore. I used to. And even bought a few at the turn of the century. But thankfully I learned not to do that anymore.

 

The only long-term value/appreciation I see in these vintage games and electronics stuff is sentimentality and remembrances of the good times. There is value there depending on what you had as a kid. Otherwise it's just crap.

 

 

[AtariLeaf]

5 hours ago, Keatah said:

10 years later.. Great to see emulation is being steadily refined and showing no signs of stopping. Emulation is even highly desirable through things like Retron77 and The64. People are clamoring for and pre-ordering those things like crazy because emulation appeals to newcomers and veterans alike!

 

Emulation killing off vintage consoles? Not too likely. But changing television standards will. RF/COMPOSITE -to- HDMI is just difficult enough that the casual/newcomer won't want to fuss with it. They'll want something that outputs HDMI directly. And emulation can do that perfectly and with plenty of adjustment options if desired.

Emulation is great but I'd put FPGA out there as the real future for retro gaming

 

Also I use an HDMI to composite adapter for my Phoenix since it doesn't play well with my modern Toshiba. I think it's easy to use but you may be right that general audiences want simple

Edited December 31, 2019 by AtariLeaf

[juansolo]

Vintage hardware is a very large part of the hobby for me. I particularly like buying ‘for parts or repair’ old computers and consoles and bringing them back to the land of the living. However I appreciate that even within that hobby, that’s pretty niche. There are always groups of people interested in the history of things, otherwise we wouldn’t have antiques or vintage cars. Playing on original hardware with correct displays is part of that desire to preserve things how they were. It’s just a different facet to retro collecting/gaming. Emulation will continue to get better. MiSTer is probably the cutting edge of that currently and it is utterly brilliant. Emulation will help preserve the software and a way to run it. It’s absolutely necessary.

[+Random Terrain]

Whenever I get my hands on a classic console, I put it in a microwave or smash it with a sledgehammer and upload the video of it to YouTube. Like and subscribe! Don't miss the live premier next week. I'll set an Atari 2600 joystick on fire and shove it up my ass! Like and subscribe! Like and subscribe! Like and subscribe!!!!!!!!!