Will Mario Kart 8 Save The Wii U?

[+Ransom]

There's been plenty of discussion (here and elsewhere) about the future of the Wii U. Publishers have cancelled games for it, and there's even been talk that Nintendo will discontinue the console in the next year or two.

 

But then we hear that Mario Kart 8 has boosted Wii U sales by 90%. And at E3, we saw quite a few worthy titles that are on the horizon.

 

So what do you think -- is the Wii U saved, or is it still doomed to a short retail life?

[+Gemintronic]

Since the Wii U is in last place the tablet/joystick acts as a blue shell! Quick! whirl it at the TV!!

[bomberpunk]

well, think about it. one game has boosted sales by 90%. one game. 90%.

 

there's still Smash Brothers, new Zelda, new Metroid.... the 3DS had a similar problem in it's infancy. the Wii U isn't going anywhere any time soon. To maximize profit, Big N will milk it dry before they decide to move on.

[Chuck D. Head]

Mario Kart won't save it by itself, but between that and Smash Bros, it should stay afloat until a slew of big games hit in 2015. From their E3 showing, it is clear that Nintendo isn't giving up and that maybe they have gotten some help with their messaging. A lot if chatter has been made that the next move may be a new iteration of the console rather than a whole new platform. This would give them a chance to rework the stupid name and deliver a concise message to consumers so they understand what they are being sold. I still havent bought one, but thinking that once the new Xenoblade game and Splatoon come out, I will take the plunge.

[godslabrat]

Nintendo abandoning the console less than four years into its life would invite a "Sega Saturn" reputation, deserved or not. I think Nintendo will stay the course for the rest of the Wii-U's life, though what happens in the next year and a half will have a strong influence on what the next Nintendo console looks like.

[cimerians]

Probably the only company that can survive on its own games. Amazing. I think it will be around just because of that.

 

They consider themselves in second place which has never happened since Microsoft has gotten into consoles.

 

http://www.gamepolitics.com/2014/06/16/reggie-fils-aime-nintendos-wii-u-second-place-behind-ps4#.U6G_-fldXTo

 

It is what it is, I'm pretty much happy with it now unlike last year. Just need more games.

[DesertJets]

If anything MK8 is the killer app that the WiiU needed. The massive bump in sales since it came out is a clear indicator that it is. Plus Nintendo's E3 previews show that Nintendo is serious about putting out AAA titles for the platform. It is enough for me, as someone who was not considering a current gen console, to seriously consider/save to buy one. MK8 is enough to convince me to buy it and upcoming titles (plus some serious looking into the existing catalog) makes it an even more compelling choice.

[Jess Ragan]

It'll be around for at least four years after its launch. It's poor form to cancel a system before its natural lifespan, as Sega has proved on multiple occasions.

 

FWIW, I don't regret buying my own Wii U. Miiverse is a lot of fun; it's often worth buying games just to use that feature.

[TheGameCollector]

The graphics on Mario Kart 8 look so good. The Koopalings themselves seem to improve sales as well. Bringing them back made New Super Mario Bros. Wii very exciting to Mario fans. Making them playable for the first time ever is probably a big deal to any obsessed Mario fan. Maybe the sales improvements will bring back certain third parties or help bring in new third parties who will one day make it big. There has to be someone out there who will make a successful game series and refuse to sell out to EA for any amount of money.

[+HammR25]

Third parties can't make Mario games so I don't see why they'd come back.

[Atariboy]

Wii U is beyond saving. Take these statistics for instance.

 

Systems Sold (In Ten Thousands)

Fiscal Year 1: 380 GCN 345 Wii U

Fiscal Year 2: 576 GCN 272 Wii U

Fiscal Year 3: 502 GCN 360 Wii U (Forecast)

 

Software Sold (In Ten Thousands)

Fiscal Year 1: 1,437 GCN 1,342 Wii U

Fiscal Year 2: 4,614 GCN 1,886 Wii U

Fiscal Year 3: 4,737 GCN ????? Wii U

 

So if we're talking commercial success here, I think it's quite evident that the war is lost where the Wii U is concerned. It isn't even approaching the GameCube's statistics, a system that was never sold for a loss and a system which also represented Nintendo's second straight loss to a newcomer in the console war that dropped it to 3rd place. Yet a system that still managed to make Nintendo money.

 

I predict it being replaced as early as Fall 2015 and definitely by Fall 2016. I think 4 years would give it the appearance of largely having lived out its natural life. And if all this talk of commonality between the handheld and console lines happens (Which I think makes a lot of sense), 3DS is definitely going to be more than ripe come late 2016 and already appears to be slowing down significantly with the pitiful slate of E3 announcements and the drop in hardware sales during the past fiscal year.

Edited June 19, 2014 by Atariboy

[Kida0723]

I believe that it's only a matter of time before we start seeing Nintendo produced games on Sony and Microsoft consoles.

[bomberpunk]

^ no. sega does what nintendon't.

[+wood_jl]

It's neither going to be (1) one of the greatest selling consoles of all-time (like the Wii), nor (2) even close to being the greatest-selling system of THE PRESENT TIME. But it's going to get some good games, and as the Wii U exclusive games become increasingly-numerous and increasingly-quality, it will pick up a bit. The Wii U is a significant step-up from the Wii (as it's the first "HD" Nintendo system) while the PS4/Xbone are just marginal increases from their predecessors. When (if???) there are TONS (if??) of great Nintendo-exclusive games playable in HD for the first time (such as Mario Kart 8 but meaning MORE like it), the system will become more desirable. As is the story - all of the time - it's more about the games than the console, and there's finally some decent games. Launching with Nintendoland was probably not the best move.

[Atariboy]

Sadly, I think this year is going to be the peak of it. I doubt there's a lot of great games yet unknown that will end up on it or we'd be hearing about it like they've done in the past (Although there are presistant Retro Studios rumors so hopefully there's at least one big one left). Take their E3 lineup slated for release later this year and the dates they were first unveiled for example.

 

-New Smash Brothers: June 2011

-Bayonetta 2: September 2012

-Xenoblade Chronicles X: January 2013

-Hyrule Warriors: December 2013

-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker: June 2014

 

I'm sure we have some surprises to look forward to along with known projects like Zelda U, but I doubt there are many potential Super Mario 3D World's and Mario Kart 8's ahead for it that are as of yet unknown to us. I think we pretty much already know what we can look forward to through next year, especially where Nintendo itself is concerned since they wouldn't want to be keeping anything quiet that would garner positive press and influence hardware sales.

 

After 2015, the system's days likely are going to be pretty well numbered and Nintendo will be largely busy with next generation development. 3DS and Wii U both struggled with not enough quality software during their first year. Nintendo isn't going to want to repeat that error the next time out the gate since it helped to nearly cripple the 3DS before Nintendo managed to save it and I think was a major contributor to the mess the Wii U is in today despite a solid launch.

 

By the time games like Super Mario 3D World started to pop up, it was too late to turn the tide around and all that optimism and momentum from launch had evaporated.

Edited June 19, 2014 by Atariboy

[Rex Dart]

I'll withhold "____ saved the wii-u!" comments until Smash Bros has launched, buuuut.... I'm pretty sure that this console is more of a Dreamcast than a PS2 if you get my drift.

[Unbeliever]

Well, E3 made me "excited" about the Wii-U, but I'm not getting one myself. However, this would have been the kicker for me if I already didn't have a 3DS that I can buy some good "gaming on the go" games for it (off topic a bit, nice lineup for the 3DS in the next few months). This might be enough to give the system some more breathing room, but they have to keep these titles coming.

[Punisher5.0]

It should be interesting to see how much MK8 boosts hardware sales. The game got second place in world wide sales for it's debut and then first place for the second week.

 

I like how first it was the 3DS that was going to ruin Nintendo ( I guess 43 million sold isn't enough for some people) and now its the Wii U. Nintendo isn't going any where but for some reason people constantly feel the need to spell their doom.

[Atariboy]

3DS did pretty miserably to start, so the doom and gloom during the early months before the price drop and the flow of quality software offerings finally picked up and saved it at least had some basis in reality. But it launched, looked like a mess for a while, and then was solidly on the upswing all within a year. Wii U is quickly closing in on its 2nd anniversary today.

 

And even then, 3DS while successful isn't exactly a huge success story. Nintendo is still losing money, 3D has underwhelmed many, the 3rd party situation isn't great and is down drastically compared to the DS, there isn't a lot on the release schedule today to excite people, they've failed by a wide margin to meet even their 3DS sales projections recently, and sales in general are way down compared to the DS (Which went up against a very successful competitor compared to the 3DS that is just seeing token competition from Sony).

 

Systems Sold (In Ten Thousands)

Fiscal Year 1: 527 DS 361 3DS

Fiscal Year 2: 1,146 DS 1,353 3DS

Fiscal Year 3: 2,358 DS 1,395 3DS

Fiscal Year 4: 3,031 DS 1,224 3DS

 

Software Sold (In Ten Thousands)

Fiscal Year 1: 1,049 DS 943 3DS

Fiscal Year 2: 4,995 DS 3,600 3DS

Fiscal Year 3: 12,355 DS 4,961 3DS

Fiscal Year 4: 18,562 DS 6,789 3DS

 

Especially telling is how wide the gap has grown between the two in the most recent full fiscal year for the 3DS that ended a few weeks back. Smart phones and such sadly have stolen away much of their business compared to a generation ago and left even this traditional cash cow (that could be counted on to bolster Nintendo despite weakness in the console market) for Nintendo threatened.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Atariboy

[Jess Ragan]

How come every time you guys talk about Nintendo faltering in the video game market, I imagine a pack of hungry wolves cornering a wounded deer? Hell, I got that impression even when Nintendo did well with the original Wii.

[Atariboy]

I love Nintendo and I love my Wii U, I just sadly think its window of opportunity to be commercially successful by at least showing a profit is almost certainly now solidly closed.

 

Wii, for everything it did right like all the amazing 1st party releases like Super Mario Galaxy and selling over 100 million units, certainly had a lot of room for criticism. Even the name itself easily provoked criticism in the most Nintendo friendly places like AtariAge (Not that the PS3 and 360 didn't easily have at least as much room for criticism; In fact I'd argue there's far more there to criticize thanks to things like the RROD fiasco, Sony's PSN break-in, and scores of other issues.).

Edited June 20, 2014 by Atariboy

[Jess Ragan]

"Nintendo friendly" is not how I'd describe this forum.

[Atariboy]

Really? I've always thought of this place as being full of people that love Nintendo software and hardware.

 

But sadly from a business point of view when looking at their situation clinically, they're definitely in a tough spot. This thread isn't asking about what you hope will happen but what you think will happen with the Wii U. But luckily all the annual reports, balance sheets, NPD sales data, and so on in the world doesn't matter in the slightest when playing games which is why the Wii U happily became my first current generation purchase last Fall.

 

Nintendo still is the top developer around as far as I'm concerned.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Atariboy

[+Ransom]

Nintendo isn't going any where but for some reason people constantly feel the need to spell their doom.

 

Yeah, people are funny that way. Remember when it seemed journalists thought a certain computer company's name was "The Beleaguered Apple"?

 

Back on topic, it'd be nice if Nintendo can manage to string together a series of smash-hit exclusive titles. Even one per quarter for the next year or two would be plenty for anyone looking to justify purchasing their console.

[Bill Loguidice]

No, it didn't save and won't save the Wii U (massive jumps in percentage sales like that are indicative of very low starting points), but games like Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros., and whatever else Nintendo is able to get out of its first party IP stable can certainly help keep it on store shelves and Nintendo as a company relevant until the next system is announced at E3 2015 or 2016 (I suspect it will be a hybrid system that will replace both the Wii U and 3DS). Of course, Nintendo is banking on their amiibo figurines being a big revenue source for the company, so, if that holds true, that would go a long way to bridging the gap between the Wii U and whatever is next. If for some unexpected reason the amiibo figures fail to catch on, then Nintendo probably played out their last big move for this generation.

 

Anyway, what's working against Nintendo is that third parties are pretty much out at this point. Even if Nintendo does somehow start to make Wii U sales consistently respectable and something that again becomes attractive to third parties to target, there's still going to be a significant time period for third parties to ramp up development again. In any case, that, combined with Nintendo's inability to get their first party stuff out on a regular basis (regardless of quality), is still a big negative whatever the outcome of the other stuff turns out to be.