Has the COVID-19 hysteria increased your TI-99/4A time?

[Ed in SoDak]

Wife and I self-employed at home for many years, so only real change is oddball grocery shopping and minimizing my contact with the masses. Not too massive in a town of 1000 but it only takes one. Which we recently saw in nearby Rapid City when a cancer-care worker decided a trip out east would be fine. 100 patients or visitors, 10 other caregivers and 2 doctors in contact with this one person over the span of just a day and a half. Hopefully their exposures will be limited and turn out negative. The local news hasn't reported further, but today another confirmed case in our county with no details there either. Does not instill confidence in me and is sure to trigger more hoarding of goods already in short supply.

 

Funny in a way, our job involves Extinction Level Events since we work on restoring fossils. Which also explains my avatar! Hope we don't join their ranks none too soon.

 

Our work is expected to slow to a crawl this season, if the fossil hunters we count as our loyal customers choose to skip their annual collecting trips.

 

If idled, I'm ready with a new-to-me Dell laptop courtesy OLD CS1 sporting a fresh install of the latest Classic99 stuffed full of my disks and carts ready to explore! My first Windows machine. No AV installed yet either!

-Ed

 

[sometimes99er]

Family’s been at home for 14 days now. It’s been freezing cold at nights, so no projects outside. TI time and programming are at an all-time low. I’m an IT freelancer, and many jobs have been put on hold. I’ve been cleaning out indoors. Come a long way. A lot of boxes and closets are literally empty. I’m now concentrating on digital cleaning. Yesterday more than 150 TI project folders were reduced to 21 projects (quite a few platformers thrown into one). Next I’ll be working around the house with a caulk gun. With Netflix and all, we stare into screens a lot – most certainly too much. Daily walks though.

[lucien2]

Less TI time.
But is it really because of the virus?
At work, I have to finish programming a machine that has fallen behind schedule (regardless of the virus).
Now, as the other projects are postponed because of the virus, I can finally work 100% for this machine.
Since I don't need to take the children to daycare/school anymore, I can do 10-11 hours of work per day.
A programming overdose.

[Jeff White]

As an owner of a company with 7 locations spread across 5 countries, we are staying open but allowing those who can WFH do so.  My support is mostly remote via computer (LogMeIn) to keep equipment running or via meetings (Teams).  Because I can do most essential functions -- and the business is considered essential -- I am going into work.  The 7 locations cover 5/24 or more, so I do not shut off.

 

But weekends are boring, so I am posting here and list server.

[Jeff White]

On 25 March 2020 at 2:38 PM, Vorticon said:

This is NOT hysteria. Please educate yourself for your sake and the sake of those around you. We are only at the tip of the iceberg unfortunately...

I agree.  However, let's remember that more people have gotten influenza (flu), been hospitalized, and died.  The mortality rate for COVID-19 is higher than flu, but which spreads faster?  At least we can get a flu shot each year.

 

I am confident that a vaccine for COVID-19 (including similar strains) will be available in the next 36 months.

[+Vorticon]

32 minutes ago, Jeff White said:

I agree.  However, let's remember that more people have gotten influenza (flu), been hospitalized, and died.  The mortality rate for COVID-19 is higher than flu, but which spreads faster?  At least we can get a flu shot each year.

 

I am confident that a vaccine for COVID-19 (including similar strains) will be available in the next 36 months.

COVID-19 has a much higher infectivity rate than influenza, and up to 10x the mortality rate. And it continues to mutate, with the current strain already different from the original Wuhan virus. The silver lining here is that this novel strain appears to be slightly less dangerous than the original strain, so fingers crossed that this trend will continue. If on the other hand a more virulent strain appears, well all bets are off then. So while a vaccine will help, it all depends on whether we can keep up with the mutation rate.

This is uncharted territory for all of us, and we all need to take it seriously and do our small part to fight this. The alternative is unthinkable...

[Omega-TI]

Samuel Clemens once said, "There are three kinds of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics."  While I am NOT playing this down, I do know that the more people who are tested that reveal positive results, the death rate will 'statistically' decline.  AT FIRST the death rates were only calculated from people entering the health care system who were presenting as already sick and in need of help, this skews death rates in relation to the overall population.

 

Hopefully the proactive measures now being taken will have some effect on new cases of infection and transmission.  I fully expect however that due to the incubation time and those presenting with the actual illness, things will get worse before they get better.

 

Now people buying 200 rolls of toilet paper or 17,500 bottles of hand sanitizer does in fact classify as hysteria (to me at least).  When people get frightened and emotional their normal analytic thought processes seem to get negated.

[humeur]

In France all the dead are not counted, only those of which it is certain that it is indeed the covi-19.there remains the statistical comparison of deaths from one year to the next in the same region, but that will be known later

 

[+FarmerPotato]

5 hours ago, INVISIBLE said:

Samuel Clemens once said, "There are three kinds of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics."  While I am NOT playing this down, I do know that the more people who are tested that reveal positive results, the death rate will 'statistically' decline.  AT FIRST the death rates were only calculated from people entering the health care system who were presenting as already sick and in need of help, this skews death rates in relation to the overall population.

 

Hopefully the proactive measures now being taken will have some effect on new cases of infection and transmission.  I fully expect however that due to the incubation time and those presenting with the actual illness, things will get worse before they get better.

 

Now people buying 200 rolls of toilet paper or 17,500 bottles of hand sanitizer does in fact classify as hysteria (to me at least).  When people get frightened and emotional their normal analytic thought processes seem to get negated.

 

On the contrary, the mortality rate will rise, because as long as the number of patients is increasing exponentially, you do not know whether your patients will be dead or alive in 20 days. Yes, a broadening of the people tested can bring the rate down as you find asymptomatic cases. But, we have at least one solid report from South Korea, where they have done the tests on asymptomatic people. The mortality rate is very high. I do not think the math  will be comforting:

 

I compared US and South Korea data so far.

 

Because 30% of all US tests are positive, it's apparent that the US is testing people who are already suspected of carrying the virus (the very sick, or those who came in contact.) South Korea has had 3% test positive. It is apparent South Korea has tested large numbers of people with mild symptoms or none at all.

 

The US is at the early end of the exponential curve: an unknown but large number of people certainly became infected in the past week or two. In the US, 1.6% of cases have already died. 

 

From their testing strategy, which includes follow-up and isolation, South Korea has "bent the curve" and their daily new cases are far below their peak. You can see this on this report: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 South Korea                                                                  US

   

 

   

 

 

 

Of the cases already found, South Korea has reported 1.5% have died. 50% are known to have recovered. That leaves half the sick people in S. Korea to either recover or die in the coming days and weeks. In the worst case, then, the final mortality rate will be 3% for COVID-19. 

Experts are putting at it back at 1.5% based on the denominator eventually being found to be higher. We'll see.

 

The mortality rate can become much higher when hospitals are overwhelmed. In Italy, roughly 10% of known cases have died already. People have been left to die, who could have been saved. It's becoming a grim reality in New York. 

 

 

 

Data.  0-4 days old as of Mar 28

 

 

	South Korea	US
Population	51,500,000	327,000,000
Tests	338,000	359,000
Cases	9478	112468
Recovered	4811	918
Deaths	144	1841
Tests (per MM)	6,563	1,098
Tested Negative	97.2%	68.7%
Tested Positive	2.8%	31.3%
Confirmed (per MM)	184	344
Recovered (per case)	50.8%	0.8%
Mortality (per case)	1.5%	1.6%
Unknown (per case)	47.7%	97.5%
Test mean	2.804%	31.328%
Test stderr	0.005%	0.052%
Mortality rate	1.519%	1.637%
Mortality stderr	0.016%	0.005%

 

 

A bunch of data comes from disparate sources and different calendar dates between Mar 24 and Mar 28.

Most of it is from this Johns Hopkins web page

Number of tests from this article

Another discussion about South Korea reporting 1.6% mortality:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

 

Disclaimer: I'm just an engineer who posts on the Internet

 

Really, working out the math explained by Adam Kucharski, who thinks a 1% mortality rate is likely.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html

 

 

[+OLD CS1]

What are the mortality rates among population age groups?

[+FarmerPotato]

13 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

What are the mortality rates among population age groups?

I don't know. It has been much higher among the elderly, and those with other risk factors for pneumonia.

 

[Omega-TI]

25 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

What are the mortality rates among population age groups?

Good question, I've been under the impression that while it's killed some from every age demographic, it "mostly" affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions.  Many people, possibly even the vast majority may get mild cases and recover on their own (without ever being tested) becoming part of the 'newly immune herd', for however long or if that turns out to be, we'll see.  In the interim, play it safe and follow Douglas Adams most excellent advice... Don't Panic.

 

To put things into some sort of perspective, H1N1 had over 60 million cases domestically with about 12,500 deaths.  While things are still early in the timeline, as of this posting, the reported domestic deaths are hovering at around 2000 with around 120,000 REPORTED cases.

[+Vorticon]

19 hours ago, FarmerPotato said:

I don't know. It has been much higher among the elderly, and those with other risk factors for pneumonia.

 

We do know that about 40% of patients with severe COVID-19 are <=55 years of age. 

[+Vorticon]

19 hours ago, INVISIBLE said:

To put things into some sort of perspective, H1N1 had over 60 million cases domestically with about 12,500 deaths.  While things are still early in the timeline, as of this posting, the reported domestic deaths are hovering at around 2000 with around 120,000 REPORTED cases.

Again, the mortality rate for COVID-19 is around 10x that of H1N1, with a higher transmission rate. Using your numbers, the death rate from H1N1 is 0.21%, and from COVID-19 1.7%... That's 1,020,000 death in the US if we assume the same total number of infections as H1N1, which is very optimistic. Put that into perspective...

[+OLD CS1]

As a member of critical infrastructure, it is my "responsibility to maintain [my] normal work schedule."  As evenings this past week and all this past weekend have proven, that also means extending hours as necessary.

[+Vorticon]

6 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

As a member of critical infrastructure, it is my "responsibility to maintain [my] normal work schedule."  As evenings this past week and all this past weekend have proven, that also means extending hours as necessary.

Do you charge overtime?

[+Ksarul]

58 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

As a member of critical infrastructure, it is my "responsibility to maintain [my] normal work schedule."  As evenings this past week and all this past weekend have proven, that also means extending hours as necessary.

I know that particular drill very well. My office has everyone working from home--but who knows how long that will be the case. . .

 

having the kids and She-Who-Must-Be-Obeyed around full (or at least most of the) time keeps my hobby time strictly limited right now, as the Honey-Do list from Hell rears its ugly head. 

[+OLD CS1]

56 minutes ago, Vorticon said:

Do you charge overtime?

Yes, outside of regular business hours.  A fair expectation for work-from-home is that the user will be maintaining regular business hours there, as well.  If they flex their schedule outside of that and need support, just like any other time, billing for that support is extra.  I make this clear to the customer before-hand so they can enact appropriate policy.

[humeur]

4 hours ago, Vorticon said:

We do know that about 40% of patients with severe COVID-19 are <=55 years of age. 

In France many elderly people >60 70 years

 

[+OLD CS1]

@Lee Stewart You on lock-down, now, son!

[+Lee Stewart]

41 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

@Lee Stewart You on lock-down, now, son!

 

Yeah...well! We left FL early (3/25 instead of 4/1). Have not needed to go out for anything yet. Do not plan to go out anytime soon, either. What few supplies we may need will be delivered by our kids who live in the area.

 

...lee

[wierd_w]

Keep it real fella.

 

As spring comes around, I am thinking I am gonna make use of all that survivalist crap I had drilled into me by my folks as a kid.  I see wild edible plants popping up now. Assuming my state does not get all brownshirt gestapo on me, I should be able to hit the lake, go fishing in privacy, pick a bunch of tasty things on public lands, then head back home. 

 

I re-upped my hunt+fish license online. Should be all good.

 

Otherwise though, Yeah--- I am in the same boat as OLD-CS1.  I am healthcare, so...  HOORAY.

(At least I'm still employed I guess.)

[LASooner]

Less time actually. I have my workstation from Treyarch and I'm full go on our next game. So when I finish my day, I want to get away from my home office as soon as possible. Having no commute is nice.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[+OLD CS1]

I suspect many people without experience will very quickly figure out the benefits and pitfalls of home offices.  Like anything in life, working from home can be stressful if not managed well.

[wierd_w]

Indeed. Set up a room. IT IS FOR WORK. NOTHING ELSE.

 

Adhere to that. All will be well.

 

 

When you make the space shared, bad things happen.