Looking for any post 1988 Atari 7800 and sourced SMS sales figures (any date) for new book.

[Torr]

I think a LOT of this is missing the point.

 

MOST Atari sales (be they 7800 or 2600 Jr.s) were poor/cheap parents looking for an easy way out to provide their children with video games.

 

I can tell you for sure, and someone else please back me up, that when child 'X' received a 7800 (or even a 2600 Jr.) for Xmas in 1988 or whatever, they got what they didn't want.

Sure it counts as sale, but it's a bad sale when your customer is unhappy with the product (hence why Atari doesn't exist really anymore).

 

Like I say. after 1987... EVERY kid wanted an NES.

 

Eventually, some of us got an SMS or TG16 instead and were happy.... and hell, even some of us were even happy with our 7800/2600 Jr.

But at the end of the day, the parents eventually bought an NES or SMS or TG16 for their kids too.

AND some kids, like I say just gave up on the video game 'fad' and found other hobbies.

 

VERY few kids were happy playing 7800 Asteroids and Ms Pac-Man when they were going to their friends houses and playing Mega Man 2 and Super Mario Bros. 1 & 2 and Legend of Zelda and Metroid.

 

Sales numbers don't mean ANYTHING regarding customer satisfaction.

 

 

EDIT: Thats why I believe I had such trouble finding 7800 systems in the mid-late 90's. Because by then Sega and Nintendo ruled the market, and anyone who had an "Atari"... well all they had was fuel for the fire pit out back. Yes that's a thing. The fire pit. Like I say,  no dumpsters in rural Newfoundland.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Torr

[mr_me]

I didn't think there was any point to the exercise.

 

There's always a market for budget, previous generation consoles, for those that can't spend the money on the current systems and their cartridges.  I wouldn't put the atari 7800 in that class. It's probably correct to say most kids in 1988 would have wanted an nes and would have been disappointed with an atari 7800 or even an sms.  But that might have been less so with teenagers, who might not have appreciated nintendo marketing at the time.  It wasn't long from when atari ruled the high tech world and the brand still meant something to people.  Sega was also a brand that would have been known for their arcade games.

[Leeroy ST]

2 hours ago, mr_me said:

The 2M atari consoles include atari 2600s and whatever xegs consoles sold in 1987.  You can't subtract them twice.  But yes there are atari 2600s and xegs and maybe atari 5200 amongst the 1.9M.  is that suppose to be for 1988?

 

The 11 million for the NES was after November and the articles increasing the SMS and 7800's marketshare (with Atari increasing the gap from Sega).

 

This of course is a increase contributed by all 3 Atari consoles though the 7800 did have the best year and bet holiday in its life so we know it's a good number (we don't know if it outdid the 2600 however which also would have to do a decent number either way.)

 

The only wildcard is the Xegs and considering initial demand, and the mass amount oif 1988 media talking about the XE being a powerhouse console with a slew of games, plus a price cut, I would assume the Xegs got a few hundred thousand of that figure as well (and then tampered off in 1989 and then started being removed from the media with it only being the 7800/2600 and SMS making me believe the XEGS may have been a temporary money maker to extend the XE line and not a serious contender)

 

Subtracting the work from the 1.9 you have 1.8 million divided between 3 Atari systems and Sega.

 

It's likely Atari2600 and the 7800 took most of that pie leaving and adding the missing 2% you are likely looking at only 400k or so left.

 

Issue is we know Sega didn't sell 1 million consoles in 88, and mentions point to that "possibly" being achieved in 1990. We also have flattening sales in 1988 and poor performance of Tonka due to lower Sega sales and losing out on distributing the Genesis which was the new hotness also taking away sales.

 

I'd assume the Xegs would take a couple hundred k minimum from that number. You really can't give Sega much more than 200k max and that's still a questionable number but if we do that would put Sega around 700k+ what happens in the last two weeks of December which is likely 50K or so.

 

750k to 1.5 million would require another 750k sales. Post 1990 sales were a disaster like the 7800 promoting a discontinuation and the Genesis taking over articles and magazines with few reporting on SMS stock. Likely selling in the 10's of thousands like the 7800. At best it may have hit or came close to hitting 100k in 1990 itself but nothing close after that.

 

Even if we gave it that, which would place sales at 850k, 1989 would have to sell 575k minimum and that's assuming 1991-1992 sell 75k which may be possible.

 

Problem is that 575k sales would make 1989 Segas best year for the Master System while also drastically increasing sales, during the same year the Genesis releases, after already cutting the price, and would have prompted Sega to pull in more support and likely extend the systems life.

 

So in other words is impossible.

 

So going back to the 1.8 million to split between 4 consoles (and the other 2% of the gaming market) you likely have over 1 million combined with 2600+7800+the 2% of the market missing.

 

We have the Xegs which had proven to be popular with high initial demand so while it likely tampered off later it's coverage and price cuts later do make it seem reasonable it did maybe a couple more thousand after 1987 across 1988. Nothing special.

 

But that does leave a very small fraction. How much could the SMS possibly sell? It took over 2 years to sell 500,000 so 1988 could only be a few hundred thousand at best likely putting Sega at around 700k by the end of the year give or take.

 

I just can't see how you can possibly give Sega enough wiggle room to sell 1.5 million. 

 

[Leeroy ST]

1 hour ago, Torr said:

I think a LOT of this is missing the point.

 

MOST Atari sales (be they 7800 or 2600 Jr.s) were poor/cheap parents looking for an easy way out to provide their children with video games.

 

I can tell you for sure, and someone else please back me up, that when child 'X' received a 7800 (or even a 2600 Jr.) for Xmas in 1988 or whatever, they got what they didn't want.

Sure it counts as sale, but it's a bad sale when your customer is unhappy with the product (hence why Atari doesn't exist really anymore).

 

Like I say. after 1987... EVERY kid wanted an NES.

 

Eventually, some of us got an SMS or TG16 instead and were happy.... and hell, even some of us were even happy with our 7800/2600 Jr.

But at the end of the day, the parents eventually bought an NES or SMS or TG16 for their kids too.

AND some kids, like I say just gave up on the video game 'fad' and found other hobbies.

 

VERY few kids were happy playing 7800 Asteroids and Ms Pac-Man when they were going to their friends houses and playing Mega Man 2 and Super Mario Bros. 1 & 2 and Legend of Zelda and Metroid.

 

Sales numbers don't mean ANYTHING regarding customer satisfaction.

 

 

EDIT: Thats why I believe I had such trouble finding 7800 systems in the mid-late 90's. Because by then Sega and Nintendo ruled the market, and anyone who had an "Atari"... well all they had was fuel for the fire pit out back. Yes that's a thing. The fire pit. Like I say,  no dumpsters in rural Newfoundland.

I don't really agree with this, this seems like a anecdote that can be applied to all consoles (although to a lesser extend the NES), as Atari was around until end of 1996 so its clear people cared about the company.

 

With that said, whether people think a sales is bad or good isn't really relevant because it still counts as a sales, same for the Sega Master system. Yeah more people wanted an NES but as Atari was able to make more consoles for a couple years MORE people wanted to buy the console as marginal the number in comparison to the NES may have seemed, heck that applies to the SMS as well as the 2600, which outsold both the 7800 and SMS and was a console from the 70's. So there's always a party interested in a certain type of game.

 

Also considering Mega Man 2 was in 1988, pretty sure the 7800 had more than a launch title by then, and regardless even if we accepted that there was still a small audience that preferred Atari and Sega, and a decent one that still preferred the 70's beep boop machine so....

 

Also your edit is strange. By the mid-late 90's the 3DO/PSX/Saturn where out and the N64 was about to launch and the Sega Master System and most of the Atari home console guard was discontinued for years so this is a very strange comparison. Heck the NES was discontinued in 94 wasn't it? That's a strange perspective.

 

Regardless this is a data driven sales discussion so regardless of opinion and sale is a sales and counts as a sale as the consoles sail through the waves of the retail store shelves into the hands of consumers.

[Leeroy ST]

48 minutes ago, mr_me said:

I didn't think there was any point to the exercise.

 

There's always a market for budget, previous generation consoles, for those that can't spend the money on the current systems and their cartridges.  I wouldn't put the atari 7800 in that class. It's probably correct to say most kids in 1988 would have wanted an nes and would have been disappointed with an atari 7800 or even an sms.  But that might have been less so with teenagers, who might not have appreciated nintendo marketing at the time.  It wasn't long from when atari ruled the high tech world and the brand still meant something to people.  Sega was also a brand that would have been known for their arcade games.

That and Atari and Sega has different demographics than Nintendo. A lot of Atari people, including those that played Coleco weren't interested, and by the time Sega put out the Genesis and increased their internal studios in Japan and in the west, their brand changed to appeal to the more mature and teenage demographic. Not to mention Atari did succeed in computers before in the 70's and early 80's, and after Jack took over (for a few years until his brother crashed that into the ground)

[mr_me]

11 minutes ago, Leeroy ST said:

Subtracting the work from the 1.9 you have 1.8 million divided between 3 Atari systems and Sega.

 

It's likely Atari2600 and the 7800 took most of that pie leaving and adding the missing 2% you are likely looking at only 400k or so left.

Subtracting what work?

 

Atari 2600 sold well worldwide where there was less competition but we're talking US only here where it's saturated; still significant.  The xegs reportedly sold 100k in 1987, I'll give it the same for 1988, although it probably declined.  For 1988 I could see 500k atari 2600, 415k atari 7800, 100k xegs, and 650k sms; but don't quote me on that.

[Leeroy ST]

30 minutes ago, mr_me said:

Subtracting what work?

 

Atari 2600 sold well worldwide where there was less competition but we're talking US only here where it's saturated; still significant.  The xegs reportedly sold 100k in 1987, I'll give it the same for 1988, although it probably declined.  For 1988 I could see 500k atari 2600, 415k atari 7800, 100k xegs, and 650k sms; but don't quote me on that.

650k SMS LTD or sold? Because there's no way the SMS sold 650k SMS in 1988 unless your drunk.

 

7800 had it's best year, the Atari 2600 was more and more a US centric console and most of its later sales would be in America as we saw with the 2 million consoles of Atari in that previous article around 1 million would likely be 2600's.

 

Considering the initial launch hype for the XEGS I can't see the Xegs only selling an additional 100k in 1988 but likely a bit more. It was after 1988 were media coverage started going to the wayside.

 

The 2600 and 7800 also had price cuts and free games included in some areas of the country btw. Also Sega next gen announcement wouldn't be an incentive to buy a SMS.

 

Then you still have that other 2% of the video game market that would also take from the pie.

 

1.5 million is very very hard to believe in the US. 

 

Like I said before you have 1.8 million to split. The 2600 already had 1 million in an older article and we don't know if that includes 1986, but we know it didn't include a large portion of 1988 so that's a good chunk of missing 2600 sales to grab from the 1.8 million. 7800 sodl 1 million in June 1988 WW, even if we low ball it and say 300k was international which is unlikely that's still 700k sales in less than 3 years. That would mean that buy the time of the June 1 million announcement that after 1986 Atari sold around 600k units in less than 2 years and 1988 was the best year, so we have a good number for end of 1988.

 

Like I said it's likely you are looking at 400-500k between the Xegs, the SMS, and the 2% of the market not accounted for. You would have the SMS sell 650k in 1988 in Atari 7800's best year with a next gen consoles announcement and 2 other Atari systems while Sega only had 8% marketshare after November?????

 

Unless you meant that 650k was LTD, which would mean it would have to sell 850k between 1989-1992 which is near impossible.

 

It doesn't work either way. 

[mr_me]

The 2M atari consoles is over two or three years.  Half a million atari 2600 consoles in the US is still a lot for just 1988; it might be more.  And yes 1988 was the best year for the atari 7800 and it was the best year for the sms as well.  The other two percent was already subtracted long ago and my numbers still don't come close to 1.9M, so they are very conservative.   My drinking has nothing to do with it.

Edited September 3, 2020 by mr_me

[Leeroy ST]

58 minutes ago, mr_me said:

The 2M atari consoles is over two or three years.  Half a million atari 2600 consoles in the US is still a lot for just 1988; it might be more.  And yes 1988 was the best year for the atari 7800 and it was the best year for the sms as well.  The other two percent was already subtracted long ago and my numbers still don't come close to 1.9M, so they are very conservative.   My drinking has nothing to do with it.

 

No they aren't they aren't even close to conservative or logical.

 

SMS was 4% of the market and bumped t 8% at the end of the year, where Atari was 13% of the market and bumped to 20% at the end of the year which increases the gap out of 14-15 milioon consoles sold at the time 11 million~ of which was the NES, and subtracting the known numbers we have for the others narrows it to 1.8 million.

 

650k from 1.8 million leaves only 1.15 million for the missing 2% of the market, the Xegs, the 2600, and the 7800.

 

It doesn't make anysense for the SMS to sell 650k it doesn't add up, where are they getting the numbers from? The system was at 500k at some point in earlier 1988 so you are saying in less than 1 year the SMS sold more than it's old LTD? The same year that Tonka said sales were "flattening"?

 

Again, this doesn't make anysense, I know you're trying really hard here to get to that 1.5 million for the SMS but it isn't possible. 

 

Then you have Nintendo increasing marketshare to around 80% (nintendo itself puts it at 83% by July 1989 take that as you will) after the first half of 89 with both Atari and Sega dropping and it's clear there's no where to grab the numbers from other than thin air.

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Leeroy ST

[mr_me]

And Sega America says they were 13% of the home video game market in 1988.  The numbers I put up would make the sms only about 7% of the home console market in america for 1988, nes about 80% and atari about 12%.  Don't quote me on that because it's all based on circumstantial evidence.  If you want to add additional atari 2600s, it would lower nes and sms share slightly.

Edited September 3, 2020 by mr_me

[Leeroy ST]

15 hours ago, mr_me said:

And Sega America says they were 13% of the home video game market in 1988.  The numbers I put up would make the sms only about 7% of the home console market in america for 1988, nes about 80% and atari about 12%.  Don't quote me on that because it's all based on circumstantial evidence.  If you want to add additional atari 2600s, it would lower nes and sms share slightly.

They said that months earlier I don't know what you're doing. Not to mention they are wrong, just like Atari when they claimed they had more marketshare.

 

You can't split that 1.8 million in a way that favors Sega with 650k which would be more than the LTD it had before and then only give the 7800 400k and the 2600 500k, while pretending the Xegs only sold 100k the whole year, and you still have the missing 2% of the industry.

 

You can't have tonka saying that their sales are flattening with single digit marketshare (Sega saying they have 13% is nice and all, just like Atari saying they had higher share, doesn't make it true) and then selling 650k in one year out of nowhere which was more than the 500k LTD they had before across ~2+ years, in a year with flattening sales???

 

Sega only goes over 10% marketshare after the Genesis, the timeline of articles is consistent. As Atari's marketshare falls after 1990 because of the Genesis giving Sega more marketshare. 

 

Your calculations would also indicate that the SMS sold over 1 million consoles in 1988 (650k+500k) when Sega still hadn't sold 1 million in 1989, 

 

 

 

Later in 1989, both Sega and Atari would collapse as the NES ends up with ~80% marketshare and their sales crater after that momentum from 1988 expires.

 

Zero possibility of Sega selling 650k consoles in 1988, zero.

 

[mr_me]

I didn't give the sms 13%, I gave them about 7%.  Flattening doesn't mean going down to single digits, although I gave them single digits, it means not growing.  It could mean they had a strong three quarters and a disappointing fourth.  The Atari 7800 sold about a million consoles by end of 1988.  Who says the sms didn't?  And I haven't even included all the 1.8M or 1.9M consoles estimated.  There's hundreds of thousands that can be added wherever you like.  By the way, the unaccounted 2% in 1988 would include intellivisions which one magazine gave credit for 4% in 1987.  The possibilities are endless.

[Leeroy ST]

12 hours ago, mr_me said:

I didn't give the sms 13%, I gave them about 7%.  Flattening doesn't mean going down to single digits, although I gave them single digits, it means not growing.  It could mean they had a strong three quarters and a disappointing fourth. 

The 4th quarter wasn't even done yet.

 

12 hours ago, mr_me said:

The Atari 7800 sold about a million consoles by end of 1988.  Who says the sms didn't?

Because we know for a fact the SMS didn't sell 1 million consoles in the US in 1988. Especially considering they still hadn't sold 1 million in 1989 with the articles we have which is the first time Sega's marketshare was listed past single digits by outlets (outside of Segas claims themself)

 

12 hours ago, mr_me said:

I didn't give the sms 13%, I gave them about 7%.  Flattening doesn't mean going down to single digits, although I gave them single digits, it means not growing.  It could mean they had a strong three quarters and a disappointing fourth.  The Atari 7800 sold about a million consoles by end of 1988.  Who says the sms didn't?  And I haven't even included all the 1.8M or 1.9M consoles estimated.  There's hundreds of thousands that can be added wherever you like.  By the way, the unaccounted 2% in 1988 would include intellivisions which one magazine gave credit for 4% in 1987.  The possibilities are endless.

 

No because we aren't talking about 1987, we are talking about the last two months of 1988 and spring 1989.

 

1.8 million consoles doesn't give much wiggle room to the SMS no matter how you slice it as we would be talking about LTD USA sales.

 

ONCE AGAIN, 1 million was June 1988 and was WW 7800 numbers and we know nearly all of that was in the US due to earlier production issues and Atari only just putting put more hardware into other countries and PAl wouldn't be a thing until 89. Realistically you may be looking at 150k outside the US from that 1 million.

 

Even if we once again, lowball the 7800 and give 300k internationally which is absurd as is, that still puts the 7800 at 700,000 but it's more likely somewhere around 850k-900k.

 

Even with 700k you have another 6 months left in 1988 with increasing Atari marketshare which means the LTD would likely be over 1 million by the end of the year in its best year. It's likely that across the ENTIRE 1988 that the 2600 was also over 1 million.

 

The 1.8 million number exclusives several months across the second half of the year for the 7800, and removes a larger chunk of the year for the 2600, and we haven't even touched the Xegs yet which would likely be a few hundred thousand in LTD, plus whatever extra is left.

 

There is zero possible way that the SMS sold 650k in one year (1988) when there's barely room to give it 300-350k, likely less.

 

In addition much earlier in the year Sega could have only sold around 392k in the US when the NES sold 8 million units because they only had 4% of the market and Atari had 13%. Doesn't add up.

 

Don't forget that the early 10% marketshare drops significantly by the end of the year only saved by the Genesis performance, and even with the genesis performance by early 1990 Sega was only 3.8% of the market while NEC was 1.3%, with Nintendo controlling over 90%, so even if we used your highly improbable numbers it still wouldn't hit 1.5 million but it's impossible to sell 650k SMS in 1988 regardless.