Video game bubble 2021

[Atlantis]

Hi,

A couple of years ago I asked this, maybe I hit an early platue, to be kind to my judment back then, but as I see it once again: may we now see the roof of the video game craze? Will the bubble burst soon?

 

I see lots of games being priced at a cartel-like fixed price lever, not selling, just being the demanded price they are willing to let the item go for. Lots and lots of copies of the same game for the same ”cartel” -like price setting.

 

This, together with more items of less rare value, common games, being put out for real auction. Might this being followed by future games of slightly more rarer value, and so on… and on…

 

With covid also hitting game collectors, maybe now more interested in letting items part from their collection for some cash flow gaining more money then when bought. I mean, lots of people see collecting as an investment, also, and for that to be true you need to put them out on the market at some point - cashing out at the peak, for more games than just the shite.

 

What is your take on the matter 2021? (Hope I dont rubb you the wrong way)

[sirlynxalot]

I've been waiting for prices to drop for a couple years, and they just keep going up.  It's not even just related to video games, every kind of collectible I've ever looked for and kept casual tabs on the price of seems to be going for higher than ever, even for stuff that's traditionally not been that expensive (e.g., 1990s popular toys like hot wheels and xmen cards, etc).  People say COVID has spiked the price of retro video games, which it has, but I think that's just part of a situation where more people than ever were looking for fun items to buy on the internet in the last couple years, more buyers than ever on ebay = more people willing to pay a huge price, and if even one or a few examples exist of a game or other item selling for big bucks, the prospective sellers will price their item accordingly.

 

Lots of other stuff has jumped in cost in my life too relative to just 2-3 years ago. Things tend to increase in cost as years go by, but these things have risen much more than usual in the last 2-3 years for me: restaurant prices, grocery prices, used car prices, house prices and rent, costs to ship items around the USA, and prices to hire contractors to do something for me.

 

I don't think there will be a bubble that will burst for video game prices anytime soon.  I think there will be a slight cool down over many years and perhaps things will become more affordable as prices stay the same but inflation sets in, but good condition items will still be expensive. We'll never go back to <$200 atari jaguars. Raiden carts will never go back to being $15-$20.

Edited November 29, 2021 by sirlynxalot

[Keatah]

I don't mind watching stuff sit there and rot till kingdom come.

[+LS650]

may we now see the roof of the video game craze? Will the bubble burst soon?

 

I think the market for retro games items may cool a little once COVID eventually winds down, but the prices won't fall - maybe just stop climbing at a crazy rate.

[Keatah]

Amazing what a particle of fat & protein exhaled by someone can do. Move markets! Redraw political lines. Quadruple the cost of videogames (and everything else). Reschedule thousands and millions of flights. Make and break careers. Create & destroy industries. And god knows what else!

[PFG 9000]

Nobody knows.  It's all speculation, and there are solid arguments on either side.

 

For the majority of my life, I only bought games, and never sold a thing.  In recent years though, I've sold off some of my stuff in an attempt to reduce my collection to more realistic proportions.  Part of this is finally developing the game room I've wanted for decades.  Now that I have my game room, I know what kind of space I have to work with, so there's no point hanging on to stuff that just sits in bins in a closet.  If I don't have room to display it, and it doesn't have special meaning to me, then I don't need it.

 

The possibility of the bubble bursting has also led me to sell some of my pricier items.  I had a pristine copy of Snatcher on the SegaCD.  I sold it last year, because I've played through it now and there isn't much point in hanging onto it.  It really hurt to see it go, but I feel like it was a necessary hurt, because it made it easier to part with some of my stuff.

[mickster]

I don't know of anything that is cheaper now than it was before.  I have seen new products become available which can be a cheaper solution than original, but everything I own (cars, motorcycles, house, collectibles, arcade games, video games, old computers) is worth more now than it was before.  So it really isn't about the arcade bubble bursting, but an overall money vs items balance having to change.

 

 

[+Sargon]

I can't predict how exactly it will happen, but the market will crash eventually.  20 years from now, when a majority of today's collectors are anywhere from 50-80 years old, who is going to be buying physical games in any significant quantity?  Sure, there will be some younger kids buying games and systems the same way people buy antiques today, but our collections will eventually become almost worthless.  For most systems, especially the older ones, I don't think prices will go much higher than where they are right now.  The bottom is going to fall out at some point, but it probably won't be for awhile.  There is absolutely going to be an end to the viability of game collecting though.  The question is, do you want to try to time the market, or are you content with enjoying your games and going down with the ship?

[+swlovinist]

This conversation comes up every few years, and I agree that eventually there will be a cooling period with game prices.  People have been saying this for quite some time.   There will not be a bubble burst, but more of an adjustment.  Until then, prices are really high right now for many things in the game market.  

[eightbit]

Consoles are getting pricey and certain (rare) games are increasing in value, but overall I am not so sure I would bank on average game cartridges for classic consoles holding their value like the once did. Recently I had some SNES, Genesis and Master System games to sell. They were all good games that would have previously sold for decent prices for what they were (Zelda, DKC, etc) but it took a while for me to offload them. And when I did I drastically reduced my asking prices.

 

I think a lot of people have been using flash carts to get their fix not to mention FPGA solutions now like the MiSTer. I am sort of a mix when it comes to this. I prefer the real console and controller (and even a CRT TV) but also prefer to pair them with flash cart solutions. I can enjoy any game from my past that I want on the real hardware. Not only am I saving a lot of money collecting carts, but a lot of space too.

 

Not for everybody of course and there will always be people who prefer a 100% authentic experience with a real game cart and I understand that entirely. I just cannot invest like I used to in them not only because the prices are outrageous but because the hardware is failing. I used to think carts would last "forever" but the fact of the matter is that they do not. The ROMs suffer from age/bitrot (or whatever else you may call it) and I have personally run into a lot more truly "dead" carts in recent years than I had at the height of my collecting in the mid-90s.

 

I am not so sure what a completely dead rare and super expensive game cart is worth. Maybe something to somebody....but to me it is worthless  

 

Of course the same doom is expected of the consoles themselves, but the console investments were not all that much in my case so I am not so concerned about that.

Edited November 30, 2021 by eightbit

[Keatah]

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

Consoles are getting pricey and certain (rare) games are increasing in value, but overall I am not so sure I would bank on average game cartridges for classic consoles holding their value like the once did.

They might in ever-shrinking specialty circles, till it all collapses in on itself like a black hole. And nothing remains.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

Recently I had some SNES, Genesis and Master System games to sell. They were all good games that would have previously sold for decent prices for what they were (Zelda, DKC, etc) but it took a while for me to offload them. And when I did I drastically reduced my asking prices.

It always seems that way. Even stuff I got on ebay 5 years ago isn't selling for what I paid for it. Though of course I'm not selling anything at the moment. Just price checking - as one does.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

I think a lot of people have been using flash carts to get their fix not to mention FPGA solutions now like the MiSTer. I am sort of a mix when it comes to this. I prefer the real console and controller (and even a CRT TV) but also prefer to pair them with flash cart solutions. I can enjoy any game from my past that I want on the real hardware. Not only am I saving a lot of money collecting carts, but a lot of space too.

Flash carts + original consoles are a decent interim solution. And if it satisfies you it satisfies you.

 

Assume for a minute I'm going for 100% nostalgia and like it was bitd, I won't do flash carts at all. Consider a 2600 example. The noises of cart insertion, the power-on glitching, the aura of other carts nearby on the shelf and scattered on the floor. All that and more means only 100% original hardware & software will do.

 

The deciding factor is the choice between gameplay vs "vintage media management". Flashcarts work for gameplay but not VMM.

 

Many years ago, in the mid to late 1990's I decided on going emulation only. I was just absolutely thrilled to "recover" long lost consoles and the real arcade classics. To be able to play them again after some 10-odd years was a godsend. Especially having believed they were gone forever.

 

And it's only gotten better since. It wasn't an instant decision I made, but rather a growing interest as more and more platforms and games came online. Compatibility grew. Accuracy grew. Accoutrements accumulated. Convenience, reliability, and versatility were baked in from the get go.

 

The first emulations of Zaxxon or Pengo or Galaxian or Pac-Man via Sparcade & MAME had proved three points instantly. Even early PC hardware was 10x more reliable than any cab. Everyone was getting PCs at home, so it was convenient. And everything was versatile because of the sheer number of hardware combinations like monitors and controllers and PC boxes. Everything was customizable.

 

Some emulators have taken 20 years to get to where they are today - shining examples worthy of the name "virtual console" in all respects.

 

I believe that MiSTer FPGA is experiencing the same revolution that Software Emulation is. Both are done by hobbyists with extraordinary passion and attention to detail. That that's inherent to these project is a good thing. Tis' something you don't see often in commercial endeavors.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

Not for everybody of course and there will always be people who prefer a 100% authentic experience with a real game cart and I understand that entirely. I just cannot invest like I used to in them not only because the prices are outrageous but because the hardware is failing.

Pretty much.

 

I always say that electronics courses up to like Electronics 102 or 202 and select applicable explainers/seminars will become more valuable to those in this hobby. I learned everything I know about 'tronics from those RadioShack kits. They were right-sized for my intellect and didn't bore or bust my head. And it's been the best money my grandparents ever spent, aside from cutting me loans to expand my Apple II stuffage! Electronics knowledge and mechanical and materials knowledge will go along way toward keeping vintage console operational.

 

Because hardware is failing. Because I suspected (decades ago) it can and would fail - is a big secondary reason I got into emulation early on. It was pretty obvious even in the early 2000's that old videogame stuff wouldn't last forever. And having observed how the 8086/8088 evolved into the Pentium III (at the time), it was becoming clear that if new hardware was needed it would not be difficult to buy replacements. If my computers all exploded tomorrow a jaunt to Wal-Mart or Ebay or Amazon can fix things up instantly to the way they were before. Throw in an hour or two to restore backups.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

I used to think carts would last "forever" but the fact of the matter is that they do not. The ROMs suffer from age/bitrot (or whatever else you may call it) and I have personally run into a lot more truly "dead" carts in recent years than I had at the height of my collecting in the mid-90s.

It all depends on the technology used. Mask ROMs where the program is etched in during fabrication or fused PROMs where the PROM's program is burned-in after manufacture are the most reliable forms of vintage semiconductor memory tech so far. They carry an estimated 200 year lifespan, or till/if the materials breakdown.

 

It's been estimated that older 1970's & 1980's EPROMs and EEPROMs (charged cell devices) are good for something like 25-50 years assuming they were programmed correctly with the right 'prommer and settings. That's what data sheets say. In practice the data retention is proving to be a bit longer with certain chips. No pun intended.

 

The life of a cartridge is more harsh than what the datasheets' specs take into consideration. Carts can be stepped on, slid across a carpet, dropped, barfed on by babies, subjected to temperature extremes and mechanical/electrical shock and invasion by bugs. Even bad breath by those Nintendo blowboys.

 

Another problem with semiconductor memories is the smaller and more dense you go, the shorter the retention period. And today's QLC 10nm devices are only good for some 5-8 years before becoming unreadable, unless you refresh them. Even then. And the write wear too.. Ugh! So never user SSDs for archiving.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

I am not so sure what a completely dead rare and super expensive game cart is worth. Maybe something to somebody....but to me it is worthless  

Same. Nothing. Wouldn't spend a penny on it unless I was stealing a label or some bit of mounting hardware or shell to fix another.

 

31 minutes ago, eightbit said:

Of course the same doom is expected of the consoles themselves, but the console investments were not all that much in my case so I am not so concerned about that.

It has been said that if you keep a set of tools nearby, your consoles will last much much longer. They fear being taken apart and never being put back together again.

[Machine]

Look at the NES. The games go up every year. I thought we hit the bubble when I sold my Gold NWC cart for $4500......boy was I wrong.

[Hyper_Eye]

When it comes to the Jaguar the safe bet for more than 20 years has been that the prices will go up. There have been periods where that was accelerated by certain players on eBay that were willing to buy huge quantities of product and push the price up but even in their absence the prices only move in one direction.

[eightbit]

1 hour ago, Hyper_Eye said:

When it comes to the Jaguar the safe bet for more than 20 years has been that the prices will go up. There have been periods where that was accelerated by certain players on eBay that were willing to buy huge quantities of product and push the price up but even in their absence the prices only move in one direction.

 

I can bet that when a Jaguar alternative (MiSTer core or other FPGA console solution) becomes available those Jaguar prices will drop. I think a lot of what keeps the prices high and increasing on this particular console is the fact that there are not many ways to enjoy it outside of....well...owning the real console. Even after so many years software emulation is still not up to speed.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by eightbit

[Keatah]

Historically it seems that Software Emulation came first, and then FPGA follows about 4-5 years afterwards.

 

First we're going to need a platform to work on. Not sure if MiSTer has enough LE for a Jag. If not, then we're going to have to wait much longer till a new platform gains in popularity.

 

Today's modern PC can run multiple instances of any conceivable Jag Emu with power to spare. Why we haven't seen it be fully developed is likely due to interest.

 

But things will happen in time.

[+neogeo1982]

59 minutes ago, eightbit said:

 

I can bet that when a Jaguar alternative (MiSTer core or other FPGA console solution) becomes available those Jaguar prices will drop. I think a lot of what keeps the prices high and increasing on this particular console is the fact that there are not many ways to enjoy it outside of....well...owning the real console. Even after so many years software emulation is still not up to speed.

 

 

That's not the case at all with something like Neo Geo AES english releases. You can play them on many digital front, SNK branded minis, and several generations of consoles. Their price never goes down even with more ways to play.

[eightbit]

54 minutes ago, neogeo1982 said:

That's not the case at all with something like Neo Geo AES english releases. You can play them on many digital front, SNK branded minis, and several generations of consoles. Their price never goes down even with more ways to play.

 

Neo-Geo is a very different world. The Jaguar is not remotely in that league of collectability in my humble opinion. Again, just my opinion mind you.

[Zerosquare]

1 hour ago, eightbit said:

Neo-Geo is a very different world.

Yeah. The Neo-Geo community is full of guys who are ready to pay fortunes for things that aren't worth it, while the Jaguar community is...

 

...huh...

 

...never mind.

[Keatah]

Years ago I wrote about cartridges being a currency of the future. And here we are!

[Keatah]

27 minutes ago, Zerosquare said:

Yeah. The Neo-Geo community is full of guys who are ready to pay fortunes for things that aren’t worth it,

It’s in the eye of the beholder. Those willing to spend bigbux on a piece of plastic are simply speculating or trying to make some sort of investment.

 

Gamers don’t fully comprehend that. Not that it’s worth the trouble to begin with.

 

Unfortunately the gamer bears the brunt by not having certain games available at a reasonable cost. As they say, shit flows downhill.

[captainblack]

10 years ago I gave up the idea of collecting most games and the few affordable options left eventually went the same way. The future of actually enjoying games is flash drives and emulation. Times are changing and we have to invest in these new paths.

[Keatah]

Yes we do!

 

And these new paths have many many positive advantages.

 

Aside from the 4 points I always state, a 5th one is emerging. The availability of hardware. MiSTer aside for the moment. The hardware needed for emulation can be purchased anywhere and everywhere at reasonable cost. Better than reasonable even!

 

[\BRAG ON\]
I saw the future some 20+ years ago. The increasing rarity and scarcity would only logically make games harder to come by and increasingly unaffordable to many.

[\BRAG OFF\]
 

Think it’s safe to say that Software Emulation, flash carts, and FPGA, are effectively replacing the traditional combination of cartridge+console+controller.

 

Purists and speculators be damned!

Edited December 1, 2021 by Keatah

[adamchevy]

Yes we do!
 
[\BRAG ON\]
I saw the future some 20+ years ago. The increasing rarity and scarcity would only logically make games harder to come by and increasingly unaffordable to many.
[\BRAG OFF\]
 
Think it’s safe to say that Software Emulation, flash carts, and FPGA, are effectively replacing the traditional combination of cartridge+console+controller.
 
Purists and speculators be damned!

In todays EBay/Amazon world we are just trading money between collectors or the haves and the have nots. It’s devolved into mainly eBay and Amazon just getting rich off of fees, not developers actually getting a dime.

This is why I’ve switched over to only 2 consoles that I buy physical releases for. The Vectrex and the 2600. Atleast I know that the developers are seeing the money when I purchase an amazing Homebrew title.

[juansolo]

If you're a collector or someone who likes to have original games, this is a sucky period of time. Speculators, they don't count, they're not into the games, they're just into making money. If you just want to play games there's no better time to be around because we have a thriving homebrew scene and an abundance of flash carts and ODEs. If you don't want to go down that route there's emulation and FPGA also.

 

Now I've finally landed a Fenrir, I've got all the consoles I can fit a flash/ODE solution to with one. I've sold all my original games for the SNES, N64, GameCube, Wii, WiiU, Megadrive, Saturn, Dreamcast, Xbox, Playstation and Playstation 2. With Sony's debacle with the PS3 and Vita, I jailbroke those also (before they finally did the right thing). The sheer amount of space I've gained back is shocking. Made a decent amount of cash out of it also. Legally I'm fairly certain it puts me on shakey ground, but as has been proven by Sony, they don't care about anything that predates the PS4 (I've hung on to back compatible games for the Xbox One... Got to give props to Microsoft there for doing that).

 

My issue is my Atari problem... In that despite having all the flash cards (except the JagGD), I wouldn't mind owning the originals for all the stuff I like. The Jaguar is a particular issue as quite frankly the prices of the commercial games currently isn't a reflection of the quality of them (ie, most of them aren't great). I've got Tempest 2k and Super Burnout which frankly are the best two commercial games on it. Sensi Soccer and Raiden are nice ports on it, I'd have paid £10-20 for a copy of each as I once did back in the day before I sold up the first time, but £50-150 is just stupid for games that I can play on other platforms for next to nothing. Flip Out is a weird anomaly in that I picked that up for £30 and that's only available on the PC also and it goes for way more on that! Leaving a pair of Telegames exclusives that are both still in stock, Zero 5 and Iron Soldier 2, but are frankly not worth £80 each. As a friend of mine says, I'd not lose money on them if I bought them at that. But I wouldn't be buying them to sell them, leaving me £160 out of pocket for two games that are probably worth about half that to actually play them. The sad thing is that it's also not worth re-buying a Jag GD just for those four games as I have everything else I want on it, so I'll just do without. It's not like I don't have enough other games to go at, I still haven't put anywhere near enough time into Last Strike yet.

 

The 7800 is fine, there's a handful of commercial games worth having and they're all cheap. The 2600, there's a lot of great games, odd ones are stupidly expensive, but most are buttons. The 5200 is an issue in that all the games are cheap, but on the wrong side of the Atlantic and getting them here is prohibitively expensive.

 

I'm waffling on. The speculation and scalping is annoying. It appears to have become a worldwide passtime. But with the proliferation of other options, there are alternatives if you want to actually play the games. The only people who are shafted are collectors who are doing it for the love of it rather than to make money. For them, they're pretty much boned until the bubble finally bursts. Which it will, because before long everyone will have got sick of it and will move on.

Edited December 1, 2021 by juansolo

[Editorb]

This thread is akin to old-timers hobnobbing over coffee. "Everything is so expensive these daze! Soon people will get wise, I tell ya!"

 

Prices have been steadily rising (precipitously during pandemic) for 20-30 years. The supply of vintage equipment is not increasing, and there's no reason to think human nature and economics will change.

 

I have second pressings of two Green Day seven inches; paid three bucks each, and they're worth probably coupla hundred. My brother collects comic books and records, and I asked if I should be aware of timing the market to coincide with people still caring about the band or a band member dying or something. He said not to sweat it, and prices typically just rise in perpetuity.

 

I like games and would not object to using new tech to play them, but I own all the old carts I want already. In last year, I've topped out my Jag official releases from 17 to 49 and don't see need to procure a modern solution to a nonexistent problem.

 

Re: Irony Solder 2, price has gone up. I paid $125 from Songbird a year ago. It's now 200. I'm glad I bit bullet for Breakout 2000, IS2, Towers II, Worms, and Zero 5 when I did. As for IS2 not being worth even 80 pounds, I loved the first game, and thought the sequel was fantastic.