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New video game crash?


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#1 COMTARI OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 11:19 AM

What do you think are the possibilities of a new video game crash among the dedicated and plug n play game units? Every week, there seems to be new plug n play games on the shelves while others are moved to clearance racks. Do you think that the market will become too saturated with these games to the point where the novelty will wear off and the general consumer will loose interest? Manufacturers such as atari, jakks and others would then stop production of the dedicated systems all together. How many flashbacks will people buy with simular games in different cases until atari releases what the atari fan wants...a programable 2600? Sell a programable (simple to program) console with inexpensive carts for under $10 and if they decided to discontinue the software, then release it to the gaming community so they can produce homebrews with simple code for the unit to keep it going. Just some thoughts...

#2 Foxsolo2000 OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 11:47 AM

Its possible I suppose but I seriously doubt that it would happen on the same extent as the great crash of 84. Retro is currently in at the moment and although there is a number of units available on the market there isn't enough of a saturation to cause a problem just yet. I guess we will have to wait and see.

#3 Shawn OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 11:50 AM

Plug and plays come and go with no real lasting negative effect to the company they are made by cause it's usually the same companies that are getting the same shelf space, As in the new Jakks plug and play is put on the shelf and the old jakks plug and play is put in the clearance bin. They have already made there money off of the now clearance item and are just promoting the new one now. These stupid little things will be around for a long time coming. Just look at the old Tiger handhelds of the at the time popular NES games like megaman and such. They are the same thing as the plug and plays IMO. A cheap alterative for a quick $5 thrill.

As for the prgramable $10 Infro-Atari, Simple answer to that one, It's never EVER gonna happen.

#4 Atariboy OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 12:18 PM

"As for the prgramable $10 Infro-Atari, Simple answer to that one, It's never EVER gonna happen."

:?:

#5 COMTARI OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 1:17 PM

CLARIFICATION: Console for $35 and the Atari liscensed carts seperately for under $10, but you are right, it'll never happen.

#6 Curt Vendel OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 1:58 PM

Really? :ponder:


Curt

CLARIFICATION: Console for $35 and the Atari liscensed carts seperately for under $10, but you are right, it'll never happen.

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#7 supercat OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 7, 2005 4:53 PM

Really?  :ponder:


Really. The console will be $34.95 and the cartridges will be $9.95 :D

#8 carmel_andrews OFFLINE  

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Posted Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:41 AM

How about that bloke Heckendorn and his portatble VCS or 5200 tying up with info-atari... that would make a better product anyday compared to the fb1/2/3 etc...and atari selling re-released carts for 5 gbp a pop

Is heckendorn looking to do a portable A8 (atari 8bit)... yes please...gimme gimme

#9 HP Atari King of Michigan OFFLINE  

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Posted Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:16 PM

Gamers learned their lesson after the 1984 crash. I doubt that their will be another crash.

#10 Flojomojo OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:08 AM

I'd never say never.

The XBOX 360 smells suspiciously like the Atari 5200 to me. Rushed to production, slight improvements over popular games we already have, rather expensive.

Sales are down, according to many analysts.

And finally, the view from my own narrow, biased, bubble perspective is that there isn't much new of interest in the pipe. Though Shadow of the Colossus looks pretty neat...

#11 Lauren Tyler OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:24 AM

If there is another video game crash... don't make me go there!

#12 Shawn OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 11:30 AM

Really?  :ponder:


Curt

CLARIFICATION: Console for $35 and the Atari liscensed carts seperately for under $10, but you are right, it'll never happen.

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Awsome, Thanks for the info Curt!! I love the little hints here and there you sly fellow you ;) Brand new carts made by ATARI, I can't wait :lust:

#13 else OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:13 PM

I'd never say never.

The XBOX 360 smells suspiciously like the Atari 5200 to me. Rushed to production, slight improvements over popular games we already have, rather expensive.

Sales are down, according to many analysts.

And finally, the view from my own narrow, biased, bubble perspective is that there isn't much new of interest in the pipe. Though Shadow of the Colossus looks pretty neat...

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You have to understand that a lot of things are different today than they were back during the first crash. Back then, when games were distributed on carts, the ROMs were very espensive to make and thus required a huge outlay of cash on the company's part. This put them at great risk if the game didn't sell well. Today, games are distributed on CDs which cost almost nothing to produce (a fraction of a penny maybe?). This means a company isn't as exposed to all that risk if a game bombs.

To use an analogy, today's game business is much more like the move industry -- it requires a lot of up front money to produce, but the product can then be replicated for next to nothing. That wasn't always the case in the game business....

I can see a downturn in the industry, but I don't see another all out crash coming again.

#14 keilbaca OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:08 PM

Really?  :ponder:


Curt

CLARIFICATION: Console for $35 and the Atari liscensed carts seperately for under $10, but you are right, it'll never happen.

View Post

View Post



Awsome, Thanks for the info Curt!! I love the little hints here and there you sly fellow you ;) Brand new carts made by ATARI, I can't wait :lust:

View Post


Hopefully the games will be programmed better than Arcade Asteroids and Asteroids Deluxe. I hate the jumping on the screen, and as much as I would love to play these titles, I just can't stand the jumping after so long.

#15 Laner OFFLINE  

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Posted Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:17 PM

Gamers learned their lesson after the 1984 crash.  I doubt that their will be another crash.

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The crash had little if anything to do with the "gamers" - it was a bazillion publishers all trying to get a piece of the pie, many of which had no business trying to develop games.

Edited by Laner, Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:18 PM.


#16 Flojomojo OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:18 PM

I'd never say never.

The XBOX 360 smells suspiciously like the Atari 5200 to me. Rushed to production, slight improvements over popular games we already have, rather expensive.

Sales are down, according to many analysts.

And finally, the view from my own narrow, biased, bubble perspective is that there isn't much new of interest in the pipe. Though Shadow of the Colossus looks pretty neat...

View Post


You have to understand that a lot of things are different today than they were back during the first crash. Back then, when games were distributed on carts, the ROMs were very espensive to make and thus required a huge outlay of cash on the company's part. This put them at great risk if the game didn't sell well. Today, games are distributed on CDs which cost almost nothing to produce (a fraction of a penny maybe?). This means a company isn't as exposed to all that risk if a game bombs.

To use an analogy, today's game business is much more like the move industry -- it requires a lot of up front money to produce, but the product can then be replicated for next to nothing. That wasn't always the case in the game business....

I can see a downturn in the industry, but I don't see another all out crash coming again.

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Don't you think that today's game industry is even MORE exposed than in the 1980s? Sure, media is cheap, but production costs, marketing, and distribution are orders of magnitude larger. The risk is like that of a Hollywood movie. Large outlay of cash, potential but not guaranteed chance of big returns.

#17 doctorclu OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:23 PM

Video game crash?

I know that Nintendo's reign is coming to an end. Soon Nintendo will be in the realm of past legend like Atari.

Sega is yesterday's Intellivision.

EDO is yesterdays Coleco.

Jaguar is yesterday's Vectrex.

Playstation is the king for the next decade.

X-Box will make a good competitor, but there will be room for something else once Nintendo is gone.


And the handheld wars... now that is a whole other story. :)

#18 Flojomojo OFFLINE  

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Posted Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:35 AM

I know that Nintendo's reign is coming to an end.  Soon Nintendo will be in the realm of past legend like Atari.

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Oh wise oracle of the future, pray tell us what will become of Nintendo's EIGHT BILLION DOLLAR cash reserve?

#19 HP Atari King of Michigan OFFLINE  

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Posted Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:27 PM

Gamers learned their lesson after the 1984 crash.  I doubt that their will be another crash.

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The crash had little if anything to do with the "gamers" - it was a bazillion publishers all trying to get a piece of the pie, many of which had no business trying to develop games.

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Thats what I meant!! The publishers!!! Thanks for the correction. :D

#20 mos6507 OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:31 PM

What's happening is games are becoming equated in the minds of the public as interactive movies.

Passive entertainment like movies and TV are starting to get passe, and internet and videogames are becoming more attractive alternatives.

Spielberg entering into the fray only makes this more obvious.

You get thrust into a story where you have control over perspective and some degree of direct influence but the story still washes over you in a fairly linear fashion. You work your way through the game more like the process of watching a movie than playing a twitch game like Robotron. Once you've gotten to the end, you return the game to blockbuster and forget it.

This is the perfect business model because these games have built-in obsolescence due to the lack of replay value. And this has been heading in this direction for so long, ever since Super Mario really, that the public has completely adjusted to it as the norm for gaming. You "finish" a game and move on to the next one. Score doesn't really matter. Lives don't matter. Getting to the "end" is the only thing that matters.

I guess as long as driving games, first-person-shooters, realtime strategy games, and sports sims are out there, they will provide an alternative with more replay value, but it would be nice to see some completely new gameplay ideas that still fall into the realm of a "sportlike" experience rather than an "adventure" or scripted RPG experience.

#21 Atariboy OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:42 PM

"Oh wise oracle of the future, pray tell us what will become of Nintendo's EIGHT BILLION DOLLAR cash reserve?"

Somehow I doubt that. For starters they'd be nuts to have 8 billion dollars sitting around in a bank, not a smart business decision when that could be invested.

#22 TheWriteDude OFFLINE  

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Posted Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:17 PM

The thread starter was talking about the all-in-one/dedicated units. I don't think the question of a "crash" is particularly relevant to these items. They just come and go, and are mainly cheap nostalgia toys -- the FB2 is one of the pricest and it's only $30.

But, with regard to the upcoming generation of consoles, there are some unsettling signs. Microsoft's move to the Xbox 360 is seen by many who cover this industry as an indication that the company really needs to bring its gaming division to profitability -- the Xbox has been on a money loser. That is why the 360 will be even more tied with Xbox Live, which is actually doing pretty decent. Then there's the fact that Microsoft is looking to revive Windows gaming (which they realize now that they neglected by focusing so much on the Xbox for the past couple of years) with its upcoming Vista.

There's a lot of a uncertainty as to what Sony is doing with the PS3. Nobody knows really much about the system, actually, and the sluggish sales of the PSP aren't helping things either.

And it's obvious that Nintendo is banking more on casual gaming -- they are moving away from flashy realistic graphics and the hard-core gamer. They feel that the present gaming audience is too small, and becoming smaller. Recent surveys that show that the current teen generation isn't as into video-gaming as those older than them is also not a good sign.

And here's another problem: The more sophisticated these consoles become, the longer -- and more money -- it takes for game developers to make quality games that utilize the graphics, sound and other features of these systems that their owners expect.

I'm not seeing an absolute "crash" in this industry, but a general slow-down and reassessment by the major industry companies as to branching out the audience for their products and creating more games that are less graphically sophisticated. The overall success of "casual gaming" like Nintendogs, and the all-in-one units, may be pointing toward this direction for the entire industry.

#23 HP Atari King of Michigan OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:26 AM

The thread starter was talking about the all-in-one/dedicated units. I don't think the question of a "crash" is particularly relevant to these items. They just come and go, and are mainly cheap nostalgia toys -- the FB2 is one of the pricest and it's only $30.

But, with regard to the upcoming generation of consoles, there are some unsettling signs. Microsoft's move to the Xbox 360 is seen by many who cover this industry as an indication that the company really needs to bring its gaming division to profitability -- the Xbox has been on a money loser. That is why the 360 will be even more tied with Xbox Live, which is actually doing pretty decent. Then there's the fact that Microsoft is looking to revive Windows gaming (which they realize now that they neglected by focusing so much on the Xbox for the past couple of years) with its upcoming Vista.

There's a lot of a uncertainty as to what Sony is doing with the PS3. Nobody knows really much about the system, actually, and the sluggish sales of the PSP aren't helping things either.

And it's obvious that Nintendo is banking more on casual gaming -- they are moving away from flashy realistic graphics and the hard-core gamer. They feel that the present gaming audience is too small, and becoming smaller. Recent surveys that show that the current teen generation isn't as into video-gaming as those older than them is also not a good sign.

And here's another problem: The more sophisticated these consoles become, the longer -- and more money -- it takes for game developers to make quality games that utilize the graphics, sound and other features of these systems that their owners expect.

I'm not seeing an absolute "crash" in this industry, but a general slow-down and reassessment by the major industry companies as to branching out the audience for their products and creating more games that are less graphically sophisticated. The overall success of "casual gaming" like Nintendogs, and the all-in-one units, may be pointing toward this direction for the entire industry.

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Case in point (as far as the all-in-one and new consoles): The upcoming Nintendo Revolution where you can play all of the Nintendo games from the NES to the Game Cube as well as new games made for the Revolution.

#24 mos6507 OFFLINE  

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Posted Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:07 AM

Don't you think that today's game industry is even MORE exposed than in the 1980s? Sure, media is cheap, but production costs, marketing, and distribution are orders of magnitude larger. The risk is like that of a Hollywood movie. Large outlay of cash, potential but not guaranteed chance of big returns.

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Movies are a mature business but studios are always teetering on the bring of bankruptcy depending on the status of their blockbusters. Had Lord of the Rings not been a big hit, it would have taken down New Line.

But the industry as a whole keeps going.

It's different from the videogame crash where the entire console business was (temporarily) taken down. Only home computers and coinop limped along.

#25 bigdcaldavis2k OFFLINE  

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Posted Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:29 AM

Sure, media is cheap, but production costs, marketing, and distribution are orders of magnitude larger. The risk is like that of a Hollywood movie. Large outlay of cash, potential but not guaranteed chance of big returns.


That's probably why brand-new games for the next-gen consoles will be $60-$70 (much like the heydays of the Genesis and SNES). :(




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