Has anyone heard of the 35 year theory?

[homerwannabee]

While at the flea market yesterday I was talking to a 76 year old man who claimed that he had been collecting stuff for over 50 years. He then unloaded a theory on me. He told me that in order for a collectible market to really start to explode you have to wait about 35 years. At this time all the people who had stuff when they were kids will start to get nostalgic once again for their stuff. I asked him how long does the boom last. He then told me until your generation dies. Then a whole bunch of stuff comes out of the woodwork that you never expect and the next generation will not care as much for that stuff. He also said this is why some stuff in the seventies is really starting to become big. I sort of had a similar theory but I never knew that there was actually a number attached to it. I was wondering if anyone else has heard of the 35 year rule of thumb in regards to collecting.

[Pipster]

It's a similar thing with classic cars.

[Rybags]

Sounds reasonable.

 

Except with computers, new generations come much more quickly.

 

You could almost say a quarter of that time for some things.

 

Stuff like orignal 3DFX Voodoo cards, and games like Doom are starting to become collectables.

 

Although, they're probably well under their original price.

 

But, you could safely say that as they became "redundant" people would have been getting rid of them for a couple of bucks - so they would be profitable for someone with the right timing.

 

I had an old Hercules graphics card from the mid-1980s. Kinda displeased now that I chucked it out a couple of years ago during a cleanup.

[lemoncurry]

Yep, when people hit their mid-life crisis age of around 45, they get nostalgic for the toys they had when they were around 10.

 

45-10=35, there you go!

 

The guy was talking about human generations, not technology generations!

[Rom Hunter]

I firmly believe in this theory.

 

It makes perfect sense.

 

[SINGLE TOOTH]

I agree as well. I would have to say it starts a little earlier though.

[Mezrabad]

I think that his 35-year theory holds well with explaining demand, but it can also explain supply. Parents who kept the consoles that their families didn't play (for whatever reason) will find those items in their attics 30 years later when they move out of their homes to retirement residences. Those items then find their way into yard sales and eBay auctions.

[lemoncurry]

I agree as well. I would have to say it starts a little earlier though.

 

Great, since 1980+35=2015, I'd love to see my collection's value skyrocket sooner!

[oldgames]

I think that old man has it pegged. My Dad and I have been talking about the same thing. He has also been buying and selling collectibles, antiques, and vintage stuff for about 40 years or so and has plenty of examples of stuff that has 'crested'. Sometimes the value drops rapidly after this, and other times it is a gradual decrease.

[tillenterprises]

I've noticed that pop culture usually comes back in style in 20 year increments. In the 70's, music and icons of the 50's were real popular- American Graffitti, Happy Days, Grease, etc.. The in 80's, the 60's became popular again- Vietnam movies, tie-dye t shirts, Monkees reunion, etc., and of course the 90's gave us "that 70's show. I noticed in the early 2000's, I was able to sell my Atari stuff and Pac-Man stuff at a premium. Now I'm lucky if I get a fraction of that. Insofar as age goes, I do think that 35ish is the time that you start reminscing about the stuff you had as a kid, now that you're grown, have bills and a mortgage to worry about, and the pressures of raising a family, it's nice to be a kid again for a few minutes and play Atari!

[Zwackery]

I'm "around" 35 and definitely collectible!

[BSA Starfire]

It's pretty much the case with my business witch is Classic motorcycles.

[godslabrat]

I've heard of this, but I always factored in 20 years instead of 35...

[zeitshabba]

Here I was thinking that the "35 year theory" of recapturing one's youth included a baseball cap atop a semi-bald head driving along in a convertible pseudo-sportscar....

[lemoncurry]

20 for retro-popularity, 35 for hard-core collecting.

 

At least I hope so, if I'm sitting on this pile seven years too late, I'm screwed!